Global oil prices drop 1% as OPEC+ lifts August output targets
Synopsis
OPEC+ has moved to raise August output by 188,000 barrels per day — its penultimate step in unwinding the 2023 supply cuts — just as Strait of Hormuz exports return to normal after the US-Iran interim deal. The combined effect has pushed Brent below $72 and created a fresh surplus in Asian markets, raising the stakes for the final September adjustment.
Key Takeaways
Brent crude fell 0.76% to $71.55 per barrel ; WTI dropped nearly 1% to below $69 per barrel on 6 July .
OPEC+ agreed to raise combined output targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August , led by Saudi Arabia and Russia .
Cumulative quota additions since the rollback began now stand at approximately 940,000 barrels per day , equal to nearly 1% of global demand.
Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering after a US-Iran interim peace agreement eased regional tensions.
A supply surplus has emerged in key Asian markets, raising competition for market share among OPEC+ producers.
One final production increase is expected in September to complete the unwinding of the 2023 output curbs.
Global crude oil prices fell nearly 1 per cent on Monday, 6 July after OPEC+ agreed to raise production targets for August, while a recovery in crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz signalled improving global supplies. The twin developments reinforced expectations of a well-supplied market heading into the second half of 2025.
How Far Prices Fell
The international benchmark Brent crude slipped 0.76 per cent, or 55 cents, to trade at $71.55 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined nearly 1 per cent, or 68 cents, to trade below $69 per barrel. Both benchmarks extended a broader softening trend driven by supply-side shifts within the OPEC+ alliance.
The OPEC+ Production Decision
Under the latest agreement, the combined output quota of seven major OPEC+ producers — led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — will rise by 188,000 barrels per day in August. This is part of the alliance's ongoing rollback of the voluntary supply curbs it introduced in 2023 to prop up crude prices. If implemented in full, the cumulative quota additions since the reversal began will reach approximately 940,000 barrels per day, equivalent to nearly 1 per cent of total global oil demand. The August increase is reportedly the penultimate phase of this unwinding, with one final hike expected in September to complete the rollback.
Strait of Hormuz Flows Return to Normal
Alongside the production decision, the recovery of crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy trade — added further downward pressure on prices. The easing follows an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which has enabled major Gulf producers to restore shipments. According to reports, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have already brought oil exports close to pre-conflict levels, increasing the availability of crude in the global market.
Asian Markets Face a Surplus
The return of additional supplies has created a surplus in key Asian markets, reversing the sharp price spike witnessed during the period of geopolitical conflict. This has raised the possibility of intensified competition among OPEC+ producers for market share in the region — a dynamic that could further cap any near-term price recovery. Notably, this is the third consecutive month in which supply-side factors have outweighed demand signals in setting the price direction.
What to Watch Next
All eyes are now on the final OPEC+ production adjustment expected in September, which would complete the unwinding of the 2023 output cuts. Any deviation — such as a pause or reversal — could trigger a sharp repricing. For India, which imports over 85 per cent of its crude requirements, sustained lower prices offer meaningful relief on the current account and retail fuel costs.
Point of View
And the Strait of Hormuz normalisation has removed the geopolitical risk premium that briefly cushioned prices. The real question is whether global demand — particularly from China and India — can absorb the additional barrels without pushing Brent into the low sixties. Saudi Arabia is walking a narrow path: it needs volume to fund its Vision 2030 spending, but it also needs prices high enough to keep the budget in balance. The September final tranche will be the true test of alliance discipline, especially if Asian surplus conditions persist.
NationPress
6 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did global oil prices fall on 6 July 2025?
Global crude prices fell nearly 1% on 6 July after OPEC+ agreed to raise production targets for August by 188,000 barrels per day and crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovery, both pointing to improved global supply.
What did OPEC+ decide about August production?
OPEC+ agreed to increase the combined output quota of seven major producers — led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — by 188,000 barrels per day from August. This is part of the ongoing rollback of voluntary supply cuts first introduced in 2023.
How much have OPEC+ production quotas increased in total since the rollback began?
Cumulative quota additions since OPEC+ began reversing its supply curbs have reached approximately 940,000 barrels per day, which is equivalent to nearly 1% of total global oil demand.
Why are Strait of Hormuz exports recovering?
An interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran has eased geopolitical tensions in the region, enabling major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia and the UAE to restore oil shipments close to pre-conflict levels.
When will OPEC+ complete the rollback of its 2023 output cuts?
The August increase is reportedly the penultimate phase of the unwinding, with one final production increase expected in September 2025 to complete the full rollback of the cuts announced in 2023.
