OPEC+ clears 188,000 bpd output hike as Hormuz blockade leaves Kuwait exports at zero
Synopsis
opec plus agreed to raise output by 188
The exit is widely seen as a major blow to the Saudi Arabia-led cartel. The UAE accounts for approximately 15% of OPEC's total oil exports, and its departure is expected to further erode the group's collective bargaining power at a moment of acute geopolitical stress.
Kuwait Records Zero Oil Exports for First Time Since 1991
Kuwait exported zero barrels of crude oil in April — a situation not witnessed since the 1991 Iraqi occupation — as the Strait of Hormuz blockade completely severed its export routes. Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure, impacting approximately 2 million barrels per day of supply. The development highlights the severe economic toll the blockade is exacting on Persian Gulf producers.
Iran, also an OPEC+ member, has seen its own exports dwindle significantly amid the blockade it has imposed, creating a paradox where the country enforcing the closure is itself suffering export losses.
Oil Prices React to Iran-US Diplomatic Signal
Oil prices retreated sharply after reports emerged that Iran had proposed fresh diplomatic talks with the United States, with Pakistan acting as a potential mediator. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 5%, dropping below $100 per barrel, before partially recovering to $101.7. Brent crude also declined more than 3% to $106.98 before rebounding to $108.4.
The price swings reflect how finely balanced sentiment is between supply-shock fears and any hint of diplomatic de-escalation. With the Hormuz blockade still in place and Kuwait's exports effectively halted, the trajectory of prices will hinge on whether Iran-US back-channel talks translate into concrete progress.
Key Takeaways
Seven OPEC+ nations agreed to raise output by 188,000 bpd in June , the third consecutive monthly increase amid the West Asia conflict.
OPEC+ crude output averaged 35.06 million bpd in March , down 7.70 million bpd from February .
The UAE has formally exited OPEC and OPEC+; it accounts for roughly 15% of OPEC oil exports.
Kuwait exported zero barrels in April — the first such occurrence since the 1991 Iraqi occupation — with Kuwait Petroleum Corp declaring force majeure on ~2 million bpd .
WTI fell over 5% below $100/barrel and Brent dropped over 3% to $106.98 on reports of Iran-US talks mediated by Pakistan .
OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to raise oil output targets by approximately 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, even as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz renders the decision largely symbolic for now. The move marks the third consecutive monthly output increase amid the deepening West Asia conflict, according to multiple reports.
Key Developments in the OPEC+ Decision
Seven OPEC+ member nations have been at the centre of monthly production decisions, with the broader group now comprising 21 members following the UAE's formal exit from both OPEC and OPEC+. Analysts note the output hike will have limited real-world impact until the Strait of Hormuz — the critical chokepoint through which a significant share of global oil transits — is reopened.
Crude oil output from all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, a sharp drop of 7.70 million bpd from February, underscoring the scale of supply disruption caused by the blockade.
UAE Exits OPEC+, Weakening the Cartel
Last week, the UAE announced its departure from OPEC and OPEC+, describing the decision as reflecting its
Point of View
Not a supply fix. The real story here is structural fragmentation: the UAE's exit strips OPEC+ of credibility precisely when unity matters most, Kuwait's zero-export month is a historic alarm bell, and Iran is simultaneously enforcing and suffering from the same blockade. The Iran-US back-channel via Pakistan is the one variable that could reset everything — but past diplomatic feelers in this region have rarely moved at the speed markets need.
NationPress
7 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did OPEC+ agree to raise output if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked?
OPEC+ agreed to raise output targets by 188,000 bpd in June as a policy signal, but analysts note the hike is largely symbolic until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, since most Persian Gulf oil cannot physically be exported while the blockade is in place.
Why did Kuwait export zero barrels of oil in April 2025?
Kuwait exported zero barrels in April due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, completely severing its export routes. Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure, impacting approximately 2 million barrels per day — a situation not seen since the 1991 Iraqi occupation.
Why did the UAE leave OPEC and OPEC+?
The UAE said its exit reflected its 'long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile.' The departure is seen as a major setback for the Saudi Arabia-led cartel, as the UAE accounts for roughly 15% of OPEC's oil exports.
How did oil prices react to reports of Iran-US talks?
Oil prices fell sharply on reports that Iran proposed fresh talks with the United States using Pakistan as a mediator. WTI dropped more than 5% below $100 per barrel before recovering to $101.7, while Brent fell over 3% to $106.98 before rising to $108.4.
How much has OPEC+ output fallen since the Hormuz blockade?
OPEC+ crude output averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, down 7.70 million bpd from February, reflecting the severe supply disruption caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
