The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest measures to attract foreign capital are projected to generate $55–65 billion in inflows during FY27, helping stabilise the rupee and pushing India's balance of payments (BoP) into a surplus, according to the State Bank of India (SBI) Economic Research Department's Ecowrap report released on 9 June 2026.

What the RBI Has Done

Following its June 2026 monetary policy announcement, the RBI unveiled a package of measures designed to boost foreign currency inflows without raising domestic interest rates. These include a concessional forex swap facility to encourage external commercial borrowings (ECBs) by public sector undertakings, and a parallel facility for banks raising fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR(B) deposits with maturities of three to five years.

According to the SBI report, the February 2026 measures focused on structural reforms and domestic debt market deepening, while the June 2026 initiatives were specifically calibrated to attract stable external capital and ease access to foreign funding — a two-phase, coordinated strategy to strengthen the rupee.

Impact on Banking Liquidity and Deposit Growth

SBI estimates the anticipated inflows could materially improve liquidity conditions across the banking system. Deposit growth in FY27 is projected to rise to 14.5–15 per cent, against an expected credit growth of around 16 per cent.

Notably, the gap between credit and deposit growth — after adjusting for regulatory provisions — could narrow by nearly ₹1 lakh crore, which in turn is likely to support a further decline in the term structure of interest rates. The report draws a historical parallel with FY14, when deposit and credit growth were nearly identical during an earlier round of FCNR(B) fund mobilisation.

Balance of Payments Outlook Revised Sharply

SBI has significantly revised its external sector outlook. It now expects India's overall BoP to record a surplus of $5–10 billion in FY27 — a dramatic turnaround from its earlier projection of a deficit of $65–70 billion. The report attributes this swing largely to the RBI's targeted inflow measures.

India's current account deficit (CAD) is projected to remain contained at 1.5–1.7 per cent of GDP during the fiscal year, within a range that analysts generally regard as manageable for an economy of India's size.

Why This Matters

The balance of payments is a comprehensive record of all economic transactions between a country and the rest of the world; a BoP surplus signals that more capital is entering India than leaving, which typically supports the rupee and reduces pressure on foreign exchange reserves. This comes amid a period of global monetary uncertainty, with the US Federal Reserve's rate trajectory still unsettled and emerging-market currencies facing intermittent pressure.

If the inflow projections materialise, the RBI's dual-phase strategy could mark one of the more effective episodes of external capital management in recent years — with implications for bond yields, bank lending rates, and the broader macroeconomic outlook heading into the second half of FY27.