The Indian rupee appreciated 25 paise to 93.68 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, 9 November 2026, buoyed by falling crude oil prices, strengthening foreign portfolio inflows, and growing optimism over a potential de-escalation in West Asia. The move extended a powerful recent rally in which the domestic currency posted its strongest weekly gain of 2026 last week, climbing approximately 1 per cent to its highest level since April.

How the Session Opened

According to market experts, the USD/INR pair opened near 93.90 and was trading around 93.70, extending its recent downward trajectory after breaking below the key 94.40–94.50 range. On the previous trading session, Friday, the rupee had surged 43 paise to close at 93.98 against the greenback.

Technically, the 94 level — which had previously served as support — has now flipped into immediate resistance, with the 93.90–94.00 zone forming the first hurdle and 94.40–94.50 acting as the next significant resistance band, analysts noted.

Key Drivers Behind the Rally

The rupee's recent recovery has been underpinned by a confluence of tailwinds: foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows of approximately $1.5 billion, a softer US dollar index — which slipped towards 102 — declining crude prices, and easing concerns about India's energy import exposure. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.15 per cent lower at $98.17 per barrel in futures trade on Monday.

Sentiment also received a lift after US President Donald Trump indicated over the weekend that further military strikes against Iran were unlikely if negotiations over its nuclear programme and the Strait of Hormuz made meaningful progress. Trump further acknowledged that the ongoing conflict had pushed up oil and gasoline prices, which he linked to Republican losses in the midterm elections.

Technical Outlook for USD/INR

Market analysts flagged that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), near 25, indicates deeply oversold conditions for the USD/INR pair, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to signal strong bearish momentum — though a technical rebound cannot be ruled out. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 93.40–93.50, followed by 92.90–93.00.

The near-term bias for the currency pair remains bearish, with a sustained move above 94 required to signal stabilisation. A decisive break below 93.50 could extend the decline towards 93, according to experts.

US Fed Rate Hike Expectations in Focus

Globally, markets are now pricing in an approximately 81 per cent probability of a US Federal Reserve rate hike in December, up from 71 per cent before the latest US employment report — a data point that reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy and helped the dollar retain most of its recent gains despite Monday's dip. This dynamic remains a key counterweight to the rupee's rally, as a more aggressive Fed path typically strengthens the dollar and pressures emerging-market currencies.

With crude prices, West Asia geopolitics, and the Fed's December decision all in play, the rupee's trajectory over the coming weeks will hinge on whether these tailwinds hold — or whether a fresh dollar surge reverses recent gains.