Australia homelessness could quadruple by 2035 under climate pressure: Study
Synopsis
A University of Sydney study using nearly two decades of national data projects Australia's homelessness could quadruple by 2035 under a high-emissions scenario — with rents up 45% and homeownership costs doubling. The kicker: even well-meaning housing policies could make things worse if they ignore climate-driven shocks entirely.
Key Takeaways
A University of Sydney study projects Australia's homelessness could quadruple within a decade under a high-emissions climate scenario.
Under the same scenario, homeownership costs could double and rents may rise by up to 45 per cent relative to 2020 levels .
Even under a low-emissions scenario , homelessness could double and rental affordability could decline by 23 per cent .
Key climate pressures identified include rising insurance costs , disrupted construction supply chains , and shifting investment behaviours .
Lead author Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh called for all new housing policies to undergo climate-change simulations before implementation.
The study was published in the peer-reviewed journal Cities and released on 17 May .
Australia could see its homelessness crisis quadruple within a decade under a high-emissions climate scenario, according to a new study from the University of Sydney, released on Friday, 17 May. The research highlights a deepening intersection between climate change and housing affordability that existing policy frameworks are ill-equipped to address.
What the Study Found
Researchers at the University of Sydney School of Project Management modelled nearly two decades of national housing, income, and demographic data to assess how climate-driven shocks and housing policies interact. Their projections paint a stark picture: under a high-emissions trajectory, homeownership costs could double while rents may surge by as much as 45 per cent relative to 2020 levels.
Even under a low-emissions scenario, the findings offer little comfort — homelessness could still double, and rental affordability could decline by 23 per cent compared to 2020 levels. The study was published in the peer-reviewed journal Cities.
Key Climate Pressures Driving Housing Stress
The researchers identified three primary climate-driven forces reshaping Australia's housing market: rising insurance costs, disrupted construction supply chains, and shifting investment behaviours. Together, these pressures are expected to intensify housing stress across the country, particularly for renters and low-income households.
Critically, the study warns that even well-intentioned housing policies could worsen affordability if they fail to account for climate impacts. Policies narrowly focused on managing insurance premiums or mortgage rates risk deepening inequality by displacing financial pressure onto renters — the most economically vulnerable segment of the housing market.
What Researchers Are Calling For
'Any new housing policies need to undergo climate-change simulations to make sure they don't deepen inequality,' said Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh, lead author of the study and researcher at the University of Sydney School of Project Management.
'Future climate shocks need to be factored in when developing new housing policies and plans,' Habibi-Moshfegh added. The call is a direct challenge to policymakers who have historically treated housing affordability and climate adaptation as separate policy domains.
Why This Matters Beyond Australia
This comes amid a broader global reckoning with climate-linked housing vulnerability. Australia's situation — combining high climate exposure, a structurally tight rental market, and significant reliance on private insurance — makes it a bellwether for similar pressures building in other developed economies. Notably, this is one of the first studies to model the compound interaction between climate shocks and housing policy outcomes at a national scale using longitudinal data.
With Australia's next federal housing strategy under development, the study's findings arrive at a critical juncture. Whether policymakers integrate climate-change simulations into housing design will likely determine whether the country averts — or accelerates — a homelessness crisis of historic proportions.
Point of View
And the insurance sector is quietly repricing climate risk in ways that housing ministries have not yet absorbed. If the next federal housing strategy does not build in climate-shock modelling as a mandatory step, it risks repeating the same structural error this study documents — designing for a stable climate that no longer exists.
NationPress
17 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the University of Sydney climate housing study find?
The study found that Australia's homelessness could quadruple within a decade under a high-emissions climate scenario, with homeownership costs doubling and rents rising by up to 45 per cent compared to 2020 levels. Even a low-emissions pathway could still see homelessness double and rental affordability fall by 23 per cent.
What climate factors are driving Australia's housing stress?
Researchers identified rising insurance costs, disrupted construction supply chains, and shifting investment behaviours as the primary climate-driven pressures intensifying housing stress. These forces compound existing affordability challenges, particularly for renters and low-income households.
Why could well-intentioned housing policies make things worse?
The study warns that policies narrowly targeting insurance premiums or mortgage rates could shift financial burden onto renters rather than relieving overall housing stress. Without climate-change simulations built into policy design, interventions risk deepening inequality rather than reducing it.
Who conducted the study and where was it published?
The study was led by Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh of the University of Sydney School of Project Management and published in the peer-reviewed journal Cities. It drew on nearly two decades of national housing, income, and demographic data.
What are researchers recommending to policymakers?
Lead author Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh called for all new housing policies to undergo mandatory climate-change simulations before implementation. He emphasised that future climate shocks must be factored into housing policy and planning frameworks to avoid worsening inequality.
