Democrats' capture of both the US House of Representatives and the Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections has opened a legislative pathway to reverse the Trump administration's deepening embrace of Pakistan's military, according to an analysis published in Foreign Policy in Focus. The report argues that while Washington cannot determine Pakistan's political future, it can stop channelling American taxpayer dollars, military cooperation, and diplomatic cover toward what it describes as an increasingly unaccountable military establishment in Islamabad.

Democrats' Midterm Gains and What They Mean for Pakistan Policy

Democrats secured control of both chambers in elections held midway through President Donald Trump's second four-year term. Senate pickups included victories in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, and South Carolina, reversing Republican control of the chamber. The wins hand incoming Democratic committee chairs significant legislative tools — including the ability to hold hearings, attach conditions to appropriations and defence bills, and scrutinise the Trump family's reported crypto dealings with foreign governments, including Pakistan.

Mehlaqa Samdani, Executive Director at Community Alliance for Peace and Justice, writing in Foreign Policy in Focus, noted that over the past two years, more than 100 Democrats in Congress had signed letters calling out the Pakistani government's human rights violations. 'Democratic control of the House and Senate gives Congress an opportunity to reverse the Trump administration's embrace of Pakistan's military,' Samdani wrote, adding that lawmakers, as incoming chairs of powerful committees, 'can hold hearings, attach conditions to appropriations and defence bills, and investigate the Trump family's crypto deals with foreign governments, including Pakistan's.'

The Trump Administration's Bet on Pakistan's Army

Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir has reportedly been praised in Washington as a statesman and a reliable security partner, particularly since Pakistan began mediating between Iran and the US. The Trump administration has described counter-terrorism, critical minerals, and managing regional competition as core US interests in the relationship. However, the Foreign Policy in Focus analysis contends that each of those interests is threatened by the very institution the US has chosen to rely upon to protect them.

Notably, this is not a new dynamic. Successive American administrations have, according to the report, backed Pakistan's military rulers to advance geopolitical agendas, overlooking authoritarianism in exchange for cooperation and an appearance of stability — a bet that the report argues has repeatedly failed.

The China Complication

The analysis highlights a strategic contradiction at the heart of the US approach. Pakistan's military is not merely a security partner — it is, according to the report, the principal architect of Pakistan's China policy, managing economic projects, defence acquisitions, and the broader ties between Beijing and Islamabad. By strengthening ties with the Pakistani military, the report argues, the US is not preserving influence in the region but reinforcing the very institution responsible for deepening China's footprint there.

The Risk to Long-Term US Interests

Beyond the China angle, the report flags a generational risk. Pakistan has a population of 250 million people, two-thirds of whom are under 30 years of age and are described as increasingly restless under growing military authoritarianism. By aligning with the army rather than the population, Washington risks undermining its long-term standing with a young, large, and strategically located nation. The report frames this as a direct threat to US security interests, not merely a humanitarian concern.

This comes amid a broader regional disruption: a US-Israeli military engagement with Iran that began in February has unsettled regional shipping and energy markets, while elevated fuel prices and household costs emerged as defining issues in the midterm campaign across the United States. How the new Democratic-led Congress navigates both the Pakistan question and the Iran fallout will be closely watched in the months ahead.