Pakistan's federal government has imposed emergency rule across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and authorised military deployment in the province, a move analysts describe as a calculated bid by Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir to wrest control over the region's administration — and its considerable mineral wealth — from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) provincial government.

How Emergency Rule Was Imposed

Islamabad officially cited a deteriorating law-and-order situation and the provincial government's alleged failure to cooperate with federal counter-terrorism operations as the basis for the decision. However, Pakistan observers say the move was, in practice, driven by sustained pressure from Field Marshal Asim Munir, with the federal civilian government initially reluctant to proceed. According to officials familiar with the deliberations, there was considerable back-and-forth before Munir's position ultimately prevailed, leaving the federal government with little political room to resist.

The Mineral Wealth at Stake

The province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa sits atop significant mineral reserves, and control over those resources has been a persistent flashpoint between the army establishment and the elected PTI provincial government. KP Chief Minister and PTI leader Sohail Afridi had openly opposed direct army control over the region's mines and minerals. Officials say the PTI administration's resistance to army involvement in the mining sector had become a 'critical obstacle' for the establishment.

'This had become an obstacle for the army, and it was unable to go about its business. Imposing an emergency and Governor's rule while also authorising the deployment of the army ensures that the establishment has a field day with no opposition when it comes to the mines and minerals,' an official said.

A separate official attributed Munir's uncompromising position to two factors: first, a desire to bring a PTI-governed region — led by the party of his political adversary Imran Khan — under army influence; and second, an intent to exercise complete control over the region's mineral extraction. 'Munir seeks complete control over the region and is prepared to deploy the full might of the army to exploit its rich mineral resources,' the official said.

Governor Kundi's Role and PTI's Opposition

With emergency rule in place, the Governor of KP, Faisal Karim Kundi, acquires sweeping powers — including authority over decisions on troop deployment and the management of mines and mineral resources. Kundi is widely regarded as a close ally of Asim Munir, and the PTI has strongly opposed his appointment, describing it as illegitimate, unconstitutional, and politically motivated. Acting on Munir's instructions, Kundi is now expected to serve as the primary decision-maker on the ground in KP.

A widespread grievance among residents of the province is that revenues from mineral extraction, once routed through army-aligned channels, tend to be diverted to Islamabad, Karachi, and Rawalpindi rather than reinvested locally. 'The proceeds are diverted to Islamabad, Karachi and Rawalpindi, allowing the powerful to benefit from the region's wealth while its people continue to remain underprivileged,' an official said.

Risks and Potential Blowback

Observers caution that the move carries significant risks. This comes amid already elevated insurgent activity across KP, where armed groups have long exploited grievances over resource extraction and federal neglect. Officials warn that a heavy-handed army presence focused on mineral control could galvanise insurgent recruitment and intensify attacks on military and government installations. 'The army would look to take complete control over the mines and minerals. However, this would empower the insurgent groups in the region, who would step up their attacks on the establishment,' one official said.

Notably, this is not the first time that PTI's hold over KP has been a point of friction with the military establishment — but the imposition of emergency rule marks a significant escalation. Whether the army's bet on direct control delivers economic gains without triggering a deeper security crisis will be closely watched in the weeks ahead.