The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) on Monday, 8 June warned that Somalia's humanitarian crisis is rapidly worsening under a convergence of three compounding pressures: a prolonged drought, the looming threat of El Nino-driven flooding, and severe economic shocks traced to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The agency cautioned that without sustained international support through 2026 and into 2027, the situation risks deteriorating further for some of the world's most vulnerable populations.

Economic Shocks Driving Food Insecurity

The Middle East conflict has sent ripple effects deep into Somalia's fragile economy, fuelling inflation that is pushing basic necessities beyond the reach of vulnerable households. Fuel prices in Mogadishu, the Somali capital, have surged from approximately $0.60 to $1.50 per litre, according to government figures — a rise of more than 150%.

Gordon Dudi, FAO Food Security Cluster Coordinator, said in a statement: 'The sharp rise in fuel prices is driving inflation in food, transport, utilities, and services, significantly increasing logistics costs.' He added that a constrained global funding environment, combined with shifting donor priorities, has reduced operational efficiency and raised the risk of scaled-back humanitarian assistance.

Current Drought Conditions and Flood Risk Ahead

The latest data from FAO's Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) unit show that recent rainfall has brought limited relief to parts of the country. However, the Shabelle River remains dangerously high at Jowhar, and parts of southern and central coastal Somalia continue to face severe water shortages. Drought conditions are described as particularly acute in Southwest State.

Looking ahead, Bethwell Mutai, SWALIM's lead meteorologist, warned that an El Nino phenomenon is forecast to develop in mid-2026 and intensify toward year-end. 'From that point onward, we are likely to see a shift from drought concerns to flood risks. The main threat is expected to be flooding, particularly along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, the country's two major waterways,' Mutai said.

A Simultaneous Dual Preparedness Challenge

Mutai stressed that it remains imperative to continue supporting drought-affected communities while simultaneously preparing for possible floods and fuel shortages — an unusually complex operational challenge for humanitarian agencies already stretched by funding constraints.

This comes amid a broader pattern of climate-driven crises in the Horn of Africa, where alternating drought and flood cycles have repeatedly undermined food security gains. Somalia has experienced multiple consecutive failed rainy seasons in recent years, and the anticipated El Nino shift represents a dangerous pivot rather than a reprieve.

FAO's Call for Sustained Assistance

Etienne Peterschmitt, FAO Somalia Representative, said humanitarian assistance must be sustained throughout 2026 and into 2027 to prevent further suffering, help affected populations recover from drought, and prepare communities for the impacts of El Nino. The warning underscores growing concern that donor fatigue and geopolitical distractions could leave one of the world's most protracted humanitarian emergencies critically underfunded at precisely the wrong moment.