Tel Aviv, Feb 10 (NationPress) The assassination of Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, the son of the former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, illustrates a shift in the Mediterranean region away from political resolutions towards a state of managed chaos. In this environment, elections are postponed indefinitely, assassinations are utilized as tools for correction, and foreign players adjust rather than resist, according to a report released on Tuesday.

This situation signifies not merely a collapse but a more perilous transition towards normalization.

In an article for Times of Israel, Sergio Restelli, an Italian political consultant, author, and expert in geopolitics, cautioned that if legitimacy is seen as optional and violence is accepted as a means of governance, the assassination in Libya might set a worrying precedent for the entire region—impacting areas like Lebanon, the Sahel, and other vulnerable coastal nations.

“The death of Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi should not be viewed solely as a Libyan incident. It has implications for the Mediterranean as a whole. His assassination is yet another indication of the gradual militarization of the southern shore of the sea—where political alternatives are eliminated, governance devolves into force, and the Mediterranean transforms from a shared space to a contested frontier. For over a decade, Europe has regarded Libya as a challenge to be contained. The death of Saif al-Islam indicates that such containment has been ineffective,” Restelli stated.

“Libya is situated at the crossroads of the Mediterranean's most critical fault lines: energy routes, migration pathways, arms trafficking networks, and naval chokepoints that connect Europe with North Africa and the Sahel. Any political turbulence within Libya sends ripples outward—assassinations resonate the loudest,” he emphasized.

The opinion piece further noted that Saif al-Islam represented a distinct political faction in Libya, separate from the internationally acknowledged yet fragmented authorities in Tripoli and the militarized regime led by Khalifa Haftar in the east.

His removal narrows Libya's political landscape and exacerbates a troubling trend: “the consolidation of power through coercion rather than through public consent. For the Mediterranean region, this does not signify stability. It indicates stagnation enforced by military means.”

The report underscored that Haftar’s ascent mirrors a broader Mediterranean trend wherein authoritarian figures fill institutional voids while external actors tolerate—or subtly endorse—these power shifts for short-term stability.

“However, stability enforced by armed groups is fragile. Ports become leverage points, oil terminals transform into bargaining chips, and coastlines morph into semi-privatized zones where migration management, energy security, and arms trafficking converge into a shared underground economy,” it stated.

“Saif al-Islam's presence complicated this equation. His potential electoral legitimacy posed a threat to Haftar's assertion that only military supremacy could unify Libya. His assassination eliminates that complication and reinforces the notion that power in the Mediterranean's southern regions is acquired through force rather than through democratic means,” it further elaborated.