International genocide monitoring organisation Genocide Watch has issued a formal alert calling for heightened monitoring of Pakistan, placing the country simultaneously at Stage 3 (Discrimination), Stage 5 (Organisation), Stage 6 (Polarisation), and Stage 9 (Persecution) of its genocide risk framework. The alert, published earlier in May 2025, cites systemic violence and discrimination against religious minorities, women, political dissidents, and LGBTQ individuals as the primary drivers.

What the Alert Says

The Genocide Watch report states that discrimination against women and minorities is 'deeply embedded in society, and violence against them is both widespread and tolerated.' It further notes that 'deepening divisions along religious, gender, and political lines, reinforced by restrictive laws, censorship, and weak protections,' have pushed Pakistan to Stage 6: Polarisation. The continued targeting of vulnerable groups through violence, persecution, and displacement, the report adds, reflects elements of Stage 9: Persecution.

Turkish journalist Uzay Bulut, writing for American media outlet PJ Media, explained that these stages 'refer to the developments or circumstances that cause, incite, or bring about the deliberate destruction of a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.'

Groups at Risk

The alert identifies several communities as primary targets: religious minorities including Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, Shia Muslims, and the Ahmadiyya community, alongside the political opposition, women, and gay individuals. Christians, who comprise just 1.8 per cent of Pakistan's population, are described as 'particularly marginalised,' facing challenges ranging from everyday discrimination to threats of deadly violence, according to Bulut.

Women face what the report characterises as the most severe consequences, including acid attacks, forced and child marriages, rape, trafficking, forced conversion, and domestic abuse. Notably, a Lahore High Court ruling in 2025 declared marriages after puberty valid under Islamic law, with millions of girls reportedly married before the age of 18. Pakistan ranked last in the World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Index.

Press Freedom and Civil Society Under Pressure

The Genocide Watch report also flags a severe deterioration in civic space. Journalists, activists, and academics reportedly face censorship, violence, threats, arbitrary arrests, and murder — acts the report attributes to the Pakistani government. This climate has contributed to growing self-censorship and a sharp contraction of public discourse, according to the findings.

The Holocaust Memorial Day Trust (HMDT) has previously noted that 'genocide never just happens,' adding that 'there is always a set of circumstances which occur or which are created to build the climate in which genocide can take place' — a framing that contextualises the multi-stage risk assessment applied to Pakistan.

International Recommendations

Genocide Watch has urged the European Union (EU) to deploy its GSP+ trade review procedures to pressure Islamabad into enacting meaningful reforms on religious freedom, freedom of expression, and women's rights. The organisation has also called on the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights to formally designate Pakistan a 'country of special concern,' citing its record of abuses against ethnic and religious minorities.

Whether these recommendations translate into formal diplomatic or trade action remains to be seen, as both the EU and UN have historically been cautious about escalating pressure on nuclear-armed states.