Washington, Jan 19 (NationPress) The global economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of major US-led trade challenges and increased uncertainty, with growth anticipated to stabilize at 3.3 percent by 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday.

In a blog released with its January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF indicated that global growth remains largely unchanged compared to last year, as the world economy recovers from the immediate effects of tariff disruptions, bolstered by a reduction in trade tensions and robust investments in technology.

The IMF's latest forecasts indicate an upward adjustment of 0.2 percentage points from previous October estimates, primarily driven by improvements in the United States and China. Global growth projections stand at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027.

A crucial factor contributing to this resilience has been a notable increase in investments in information technology, especially in the field of artificial intelligence.

The IMF highlighted that IT investments represent a significant portion of US economic output, reaching their highest level since 2001, which has substantially boosted business investments and activities, positively influencing global trade, especially exports from Asia.

While manufacturing activity remains lackluster, favorable financial conditions and strong earnings have supported rising stock prices and facilitated new capital expenditures, according to the report.

Nonetheless, the IMF warned that a growing reliance on debt financing has elevated leverage levels, which could exacerbate shocks if anticipated returns do not materialize or if financial conditions tighten.

The Fund also indicated that profitability in the technology sector may become sensitive to depreciation assumptions for advanced processors, as frequent upgrades could pressure margins and necessitate additional borrowing.

When comparing the current technology boom to the dot-com era, the IMF noted that potential overvaluation in US equity markets is only about half of that seen during the dot-com phase, although it cautioned that vulnerabilities persist due to the concentration of gains among a few AI-related firms.

Meanwhile, the IMF expressed concern that the global economy's increasing dependence on artificial intelligence investments could expose markets to new shocks, even as this technology boom supports growth in the short term.

The IMF's blog emphasized that the current expansion has been fueled by substantial investments in IT, particularly AI, but it also cautioned that expectations regarding future returns might be fragile.

“If expectations about AI-driven productivity enhancements prove overly optimistic and results fall short, we could witness a sharp decline in real investments within the high-tech sector, as well as in AI adoption across other sectors, leading to a prolonged correction in stock market valuations, which have been increasingly reliant on a select few technology firms,” it stated.

According to the IMF, the swift adoption of AI, potentially accelerated by ongoing investments in both hard and soft infrastructure, could markedly enhance productivity and improve medium-term growth prospects sooner rather than later.

The rapid pace of innovation might incite creative destruction, revitalizing business dynamism. Consequently, global growth could be uplifted by as much as 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and by 0.1-0.8 percentage points annually in the medium term, contingent upon the rate of adoption and advancements in global AI readiness, the report indicated.

The potential benefits could be widely distributed across the economy, provided that supportive policies are implemented to mitigate impacts on energy prices by easing power supply constraints, initiatives to scale up essential intermediate inputs, and labor market programs to assist in workforce transitions, the report added.

The Fund noted that optimism surrounding AI’s potential has driven significant gains in stock prices and business investments, backed by favorable financial conditions. Since late 2022, equity markets have surged alongside the deployment of widely used generative AI tools.

However, the IMF cautioned that increasing reliance on debt financing to support expansion has raised leverage across segments of the technology sector. Elevated leverage, it stated, could amplify the repercussions of shocks if earnings disappoint or financial conditions tighten.

The report also pointed out that frequent upgrades of advanced processors could pressure profit margins, as companies face accelerated depreciation and heightened borrowing needs. These challenges underscore the necessity of monitoring vulnerabilities associated with the pace of investment.

In drawing parallels to the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, the IMF noted that IT investment as a share of output is now at comparable levels, although the increase has been more gradual.

Market valuations have also risen, but the Fund noted that potential overvaluation in the United States is about half of what it was during the dot-com era.

Still, risks remain heightened. The IMF indicated that gains in equity markets have been largely driven by a narrow group of AI-related companies, making broader growth more susceptible to sentiment reversals. It also highlighted the increasing role of unlisted AI firms, whose borrowing could pose risks not seen in previous economic cycles.

As a benchmark, the IMF remarked that a scenario outlined in its October 2025 outlook—featuring a moderate correction in AI stock prices and tighter financial conditions—would decrease global growth by 0.4 percentage points relative to the baseline.