With just three days to go before the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act deadline of October 18, the Trump administration has published no list of targeted countries, no duty rate and no waiver — leaving India's exposure to potential 100% tariffs on its goods entirely unresolved. The silence comes as Secretary of State Marco Rubio prepares to visit India the day after the deadline takes effect.

What the Law Requires

Signed by President Donald Trump on 18 September 2025, the Graham Act mandates that the President 'shall' raise duties on all goods from covered countries to a rate of up to 100 per cent within 30 days of enactment — a clock that expires on Saturday, October 18. A country is covered if it was among the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or natural gas in the 12 months before enactment and 'knowingly made new purchases' on or after October 18.

As of Thursday morning, neither the White House, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), nor the Treasury Department — including its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) — had released any top-five country list, duty rate, Section 113 justification or Section 115 waiver. The Federal Register's public inspection list for Thursday, carrying 131 documents, contained no Graham Act tariff notice or waiver certification.

Key Procedural Deadlines Already Missed

Under Section 113(g) of the law, the President or the USTR must send relevant congressional committees a written justification for any duty 'not later than 10 days before imposing' it. For duties starting on October 18, that window closed on or about October 8. The law requires this justification to go to Congress — not to be publicly published — meaning committee staff may have received it without releasing it publicly.

Section 115 also permits the President to waive any duty, but only after providing Congress 'a certification in writing' that the waiver serves the national interest. No such certification has been made public. The latest USTR press releases deal with the G20 trade ministers' meeting and labour disputes involving Mexico — with no mention of the Graham Act.

India's Exposure and the Rubio Visit

India is the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China on unofficial rankings, though it does not figure among the largest buyers of Russian gas. Jamnagar, home to Reliance Industries' massive refinery complex — among the largest buyers of Russian crude in India — is directly on Rubio's itinerary. The State Department has confirmed that Rubio will attend a meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on October 17, before travelling to Mumbai and Jamnagar from October 19 to 22 — arriving the day after the deadline, precisely when the law's 'new purchases' test begins to apply.

The administration's own signals have been mixed. US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor told a forum in New Delhi on Wednesday that Trump 'has to make a determination in the next I believe 10 or so days' — a timeline that would run past October 18. Gor acknowledged that India 'does fall in one of those buckets, along with a lot of other countries', but said relief for India was 'a decision for the President.' Earlier this month, USTR Jamieson Greer confirmed: 'We have to name names — so we'll be doing that. What kind of action we'll take is for the president to decide.'

Congressional Pressure and Stacked Tariff Risk

The deadline arrives amid a parallel dispute on Capitol Hill over Trump's decision to allow imports of Russian diesel fuel. Seven senators led by Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Jeanne Shaheen said on October 11 the administration had 'failed to consult with Congress or submit any explanation to justify its decision as required by statute.'

Separately, twelve senators — including Republican Mitch McConnell and India Caucus co-chair John Cornyn — wrote to Trump on October 13 urging him to deploy Graham Act authorities against Russia's 'chief enablers … in particular China.' Notably, India was not named in that letter, a signal some analysts read as softening pressure on New Delhi.

Indian goods already carry a 10 per cent duty under Section 301. Any Graham Act tariff would be stacked on top of existing duties — a potentially severe hit to bilateral trade. The Graham Act passed the Senate 86-11 on 7 August and the House 262-159 on 16 September, signalling broad bipartisan support for the legislation.

What Happens Next

The coming 72 hours will be critical: the administration must either impose tariffs, publish a waiver certification, or allow the deadline to pass in legal ambiguity. Rubio's arrival in India on October 19 will be the first face-to-face signal of where Washington ultimately stands on New Delhi's oil purchases from Moscow — and whether trade pressure or diplomatic pragmatism wins out.