Al-Qaeda-linked terror group Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) is rapidly consolidating control over Mali, with analysts warning that the threat extends far beyond West Africa. In a detailed assessment published by the Usanas Foundation, noted counter-terrorism expert Peter Knoope cautioned that ignoring the unfolding crisis in Bamako could allow it to metastasise into a global security emergency — likening the dynamic to a "waterbed" effect, where pressure suppressed in one region resurfaces violently in another.

The April Attacks and Territorial Gains

On 25 April, a coordinated series of attacks struck the landlocked West African nation. JNIM, operating in alliance with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) — a coalition of separatist forces seeking an independent state called Azawad in northern Mali — carried out the offensive in partnership with Tuareg communities, the predominantly pastoral groups of the Sahelian north. Mali's Minister of Defence was killed in the attacks, according to Knoope's report. A large portion of the country is now reportedly under the joint control of JNIM and the FLA, with the groups said to be advancing toward the country's strategic mining areas.

Echoes of the ISIS Caliphate

Knoope drew a stark parallel to the rise of the Islamic State (Daesh) and its territorial caliphate in Syria and Iraq. "It should remind us of the darkest hours of Daesh and the caliphate. JNIM is clever enough not to give its territory in Mali the same name. But it is clearly the objective to establish such a state based on the AQ ideology," he wrote. Critically, he warned that JNIM shows no signs of halting its advance even if it captures Bamako. "So far, no Malian Army, no Russian Wagner, nor African Corps has found an effective recipe to put a halt to them," he noted, adding that those who believed the defeat of Daesh in Syria and Iraq had resolved the broader jihadist threat have been proven wrong by events in West Africa.

The Hard Power–Soft Power Gap

Beyond military failures, Knoope identified a deeper structural problem: the inability of regional governments to combine hard and soft power effectively. He argued that winning hearts and minds — an essential ingredient of any durable counter-terrorism strategy — cannot be achieved through assumptions alone. Governments must first understand the genuine grievances that armed groups exploit. "Today's governance structures have failed to find the correct, effective mix of hard and soft power. This is true for the whole region. But it is most urgent for Mali," he wrote.

A Call for Global Mobilisation

The expert called for urgent international engagement, stressing that the global community's preoccupation with other crises must not translate into neglect of the Sahel. He warned that Mali could serve as a launchpad from which further terrorism spreads across the continent and beyond. He called for all available expertise to be mobilised immediately to develop effective counter-strategies, arguing that the emergence of a terrorist-run state in West Africa should be keeping governments around the world awake at night. The assessment underscores a growing concern among security analysts that the Sahel's instability is no longer a regional problem — it is a global one with no clear solution yet in sight.