Pakistan's sustained military and economic pressure on Afghanistan is backfiring, according to a report by The Diplomat, with Kabul increasingly pivoting toward Russia, India, Iran, and Central Asia — eroding the very leverage Islamabad once held over its western neighbour. The shift marks a dramatic reversal of Pakistan's decades-old doctrine of strategic depth.

The Russia-Taliban Military Agreement

In a development that underscores the realignment, Taliban Defence Minister Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid signed a military-technical cooperation agreement with Russia on the sidelines of the International Security Forum held outside Moscow in late May 2025. Russia's signatory was Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu. According to Russia's Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, the agreement will focus on the repair and restoration of Russian-made military equipment in Afghanistan.

Just two days before the signing, Yaqoob had attended a Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) security chiefs' meeting in Moscow, where Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov warned that the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is actively recruiting citizens of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, as well as labour migrants inside Russia.

Kabul's Message to Islamabad

Addressing journalists after returning to Kabul, Yaqoob Mujahid stated that Pakistan had been repeatedly carrying out strikes inside Afghan territory in recent months. He asserted that Afghanistan would ensure no neighbouring country felt similarly emboldened in the future — a pointed, if unnamed, warning directed at Islamabad.

'He acknowledged that Islamabad might have objections to the Moscow agreement, insisting that Afghanistan threatens no one. The shift in tone, delivered immediately after the signing with Russia, signals to Islamabad that Kabul now sees its own leverage,' The Diplomat noted.

Notably, this comes after a series of cross-border air strikes earlier in 2025 — described as among the most serious confrontations between the two countries in recent years.

Pakistan's Strategic Depth Doctrine in Reverse

For decades, Pakistan cultivated influence in Afghanistan through proxy networks, seeking strategic depth along its western frontier. That calculus has now inverted. According to The Diplomat's analysis, Pakistani military action against Afghanistan has simultaneously worsened Afghanistan's economic crisis while enabling Moscow to deepen its footprint in the country.

Critics argue that Islamabad's coercive approach — intended to discipline the Taliban — has instead accelerated Kabul's search for alternative partners. 'Each disruption pushes Kabul further toward Iran, India, and Central Asia, and each shift erodes the one form of leverage Pakistan reliably held over Afghanistan,' the report observed.

Regional Implications

The Taliban's growing engagement with Russia carries significant consequences for the broader region. Moscow's interest in stabilising Afghanistan — partly to contain ISKP's northward spread into Central Asia — aligns, at least tactically, with the Taliban's need for external legitimacy and military support. For India, which has maintained cautious but expanding engagement with Kabul, a Taliban-Russia axis creates both opportunities and complications. How New Delhi navigates this shifting geometry will be closely watched.

As Islamabad's influence contracts, the strategic map of South and Central Asia is being quietly redrawn — one border clash and one bilateral agreement at a time.