Seoul, Jan 19 (NationPress) With his America First agenda, incoming US President Donald Trump is set to alter the United States' strategy regarding its alliance with South Korea, the persistent nuclear threats from North Korea, trade matters, and other significant concerns.

Trump will officially assume office in the Capitol Rotunda on Monday as the 47th president of the US, amid anticipations that he will adopt a diplomatic strategy aimed at reducing America's expensive international commitments, urging allies to take on a greater share of security responsibilities, and addressing trade imbalances that favor American interests.

His inauguration arrives at a time when South Korea is grappling with the fallout from the recent impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and the current climate of political instability that could undermine Seoul’s ability to effectively coordinate policies with the Trump administration.

In his second term, Trump's America First philosophy is anticipated to dominate his administration's policy development and execution, especially since he has appointed loyal supporters to key Cabinet positions, diminishing the presence of experienced advisors who previously guided the US' foreign and security strategies.

Allies like South Korea are bracing for the resurgence of Trump's transactional foreign policy approach, markedly different from the Biden administration's focus on rebuilding and strengthening a network of allies and partners, which it considers to be America's “greatest strategic asset.”

"The transition from the Biden to the Trump administration indicates a notable change in how the United States interacts with its allies," stated Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, in an email to Yonhap News Agency. "While there may be a time for demanding contributions from allies, now is not that moment for South Korea."

In South Korea, there are ongoing concerns that Trump may insist that Seoul increase its financial contributions for the stationing of the 28,500-strong US Forces Korea (USFK), despite a new cost-sharing agreement for the 2026-30 period that was finalized last year.

Trump has previously emphasized the necessity for NATO member countries to allocate 5 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defense, significantly above the current 2 percent guideline established by the transatlantic alliance.

During his campaign in October, Trump referred to South Korea as a “money machine” and claimed that if he were in office, South Korea would be contributing US$10 billion annually for the maintenance of USFK. According to the new cost-sharing agreement, Seoul is set to pay 1.52 trillion won (approximately $1.04 billion) in 2026, an increase from 1.4 trillion won in 2025.

Trump's selections for Cabinet positions demonstrated alignment with his views on NATO and other allies, as they expressed during recent Senate confirmation hearings.

"It is widely recognized across Europe and through various administrations, both Republican and Democrat, that our NATO partners, being wealthy and advanced economies, must contribute more towards their own defense and ultimately to the NATO alliance," remarked Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio.

Rubio added that the objective is not just to maintain defense allies, but to have “capable” allies capable of defending their regions.

Regarding diplomacy with North Korea, expectations are high that Trump may aim to reinstate direct diplomatic engagement with Kim Jong-un, as he has frequently highlighted his personal rapport with the North Korean leader during his campaign.

During his previous term, Trump utilized a direct leader-to-leader strategy with North Korea, resulting in three face-to-face meetings with Kim, including the landmark bilateral summit in Singapore in 2018, although substantial nuclear negotiations have been stalled since the unsuccessful summit in Hanoi in February 2019.

Trump's recent staffing decisions have further fueled expectations for a revival of diplomatic efforts between the US and North Korea.

Earlier this month, Trump appointed William Harrison—an aide involved in the planning of summits with the North Korean leader during his first term—as an assistant to the president and deputy chief of staff for operations.

Last month, he appointed former Ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, as his envoy for special missions, covering “some of the hottest spots” globally, including North Korea, while also tapping Alex Wong, who participated in working-level nuclear negotiations with the North, as his principal deputy national security adviser.

However, it remains uncertain whether Pyongyang is willing to re-engage with Washington, particularly as it now depends on Russia for food, fuel, security assistance, and other support amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

In Seoul, there are concerns that with Yoon's suspension from official duties and the lack of a fully elected president, policy coordination with the Trump administration may weaken, potentially sidelining South Korea in Trump’s diplomatic approach towards Pyongyang.

This concern is pivotal for the future of the Seoul-Washington alliance under Trump, especially as political instability continues in the Asian nation currently led by acting President Choi Sang-mok.

"This is a story of two allies on divergent paths. The US will initiate a new government that will operate at full speed starting January 21. Trump will be signing EOs (executive orders) concerning numerous issues," Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, conveyed to Yonhap News via email.

"In contrast, South Korea is in a state of paralysis, unable to advance due to the impeachment crisis. It is crucial that the adjudication of this case is conducted swiftly and without political division. The longer the resolution takes, regardless of the outcome, the more detrimental it becomes for the alliance," he added.

Frank Aum, a former senior Pentagon advisor on Korea, mentioned that the uncertainty and lack of direction in Seoul’s foreign policy could prompt the Trump administration to take a more proactive role regarding the alliance and North Korea policy.

"A stronger, more legitimate ROK president would be positioned to advocate for ROK interests, especially in situations where Washington and Seoul may not be aligned," Aum commented via email, referring to South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

Trump's distinct, unpredictable diplomatic approach continues to keep allies and partners on edge.

Recently, Trump surprised allies by refusing to dismiss the possibility of using military or economic pressure to reclaim control of the canal that Panama took over in 1999 and to acquire Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark. This move has been interpreted by some as revealing an expansionist aspect of his foreign policy.

Nam Chang-hee, a political science professor at Inha University, analyzed Trump's actions regarding the Panama Canal and Greenland within a wider geopolitical framework, suggesting that the new president seems prepared to engage in a global “chess game” against China, a rival striving to extend its influence.

Amid escalating tensions with China, Trump is expected to recognize the strategic significance of South Korea, a capable treaty ally that hosts major US Army and Air Force installations near China's borders.

"Considering the broader picture, I believe that the South Korea-US relationship will remain stable during the Trump administration, in comparison to the NATO alliance," Nam stated. "If the defense cost issue is not managed wisely, it could lead to friction or discord between allies in a minor context, while the strategic value of South Korea is likely to rise due to the Sino-US competition."

Several analysts interpreted Trump's stance regarding the Panama Canal and Greenland as a further indication of the new US president dismissing international norms and institutions in favor of aggressively pursuing his America First agenda.

"I find it difficult to foresee the maintenance of America's global leadership, and I worry that a post-Trump era may continue in a similar direction," expressed Kim Tae-hyung, an international politics professor at Soongsil University.

On the trade front, Trump is expected to implement new tariffs on all imported goods—a move that will also impact South Korea's trade with the US. He has vowed to impose blanket tariffs ranging from 10 to 20 percent on all imports and has even threatened tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese products.

During his Senate confirmation hearing this month, Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent stated that under the new administration, tariffs will be employed to address unfair trade practices by China and other nations, as well as for negotiation purposes.

Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former negotiator for the South Korea-US free trade agreement, asserted that Seoul needs to communicate its efforts to help reduce America's trade deficit and present itself as a vital partner, highlighting stories of substantial Korean investments in the US.

"Although reversing a trade deficit cannot be accomplished overnight, Korea could signal its seriousness by taking steps such as increasing imports of US goods and services while reducing exports to the US, demonstrating a commitment to reducing the deficit," Cutler mentioned in a recent interview with Yonhap.