Europe vs America crime rates: UCL study compares 20 cities
Synopsis
A UCL criminology team compared crime data across 20 major cities and found that while Chicago's homicide rate is nearly 13 times Europe's average, other crimes — robbery, burglary, vehicle theft — tell a far messier story. The study's most important finding may be methodological: even the best available data is, in the lead researcher's own words, the 'least-worst attempt' at comparison.
Key Takeaways
UCL's Jill Dando Institute compared crime statistics across 20 cities with populations of at least 2.5 million .
Chicago recorded 587 homicides in 2024 , a rate of 22 per 100,000 — 2.7 times that of Los Angeles and far above Europe's average of 1.7 per 100,000 .
London and Paris each logged more than 300 personal robberies per 100,000 annually — comparable to American cities.
Domestic burglaries were more frequent in European cities; vehicle thefts were higher in Chicago and Los Angeles.
Murder rates in London and New York are at record lows; personal robbery in Paris has halved over the past decade.
Lead researcher Matt Ashby cautioned the data is the 'least-worst attempt' at cross-border comparability.
A new study by criminologists at University College London (UCL) has compared crime statistics across 20 major cities on both sides of the Atlantic, offering one of the most systematic cross-border assessments of urban safety to date. The research challenges the popular assumption that one continent is categorically more dangerous than the other.
How the Study Was Designed
The dataset was assembled by Matt Ashby, Associate Professor of Crime Science at UCL's Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science, along with colleagues. The team selected cities with populations of at least 2.5 million that publish annual crime statistics. Geographic boundaries were adjusted to ensure comparable population densities — Paris, for instance, was assessed across the entire Île-de-France region. Crime definitions were harmonised to align broadly with British categories, enabling cross-border comparison.
Homicide: The Starkest Divide
Murder rates revealed the sharpest transatlantic contrast. Chicago, with a population of 2.74 million, recorded 587 homicides in 2024 — a rate of 22 per 100,000 residents, making it the 'most deadly city' in the study and 2.7 times the rate of Los Angeles. By contrast, the average homicide rate across 10 European cities stood at just 1.7 per 100,000.
Where the Picture Is More Nuanced
Other crime categories showed less clear-cut divides. Personal robberies involving force occurred at broadly similar rates on both continents, with London and Paris each recording more than 300 per 100,000 annually. Vehicle thefts were more prevalent in Chicago and Los Angeles, while New York fared better than most European cities on that measure. Domestic burglaries, notably, were more frequent in Europe than in the American cities studied.
Why Direct Comparisons Remain Difficult
Ashby described the dataset as the 'least-worst attempt' to make crime data comparable across jurisdictions — a candid acknowledgement of the methodological limits involved. Crime reporting differences complicate the picture further. Official figures for rape in England and Wales have doubled over the past decade, yet confidential surveys suggest actual cases have held steady, pointing to improved reporting rather than a genuine rise. Similarly, business robberies in London may have increased partly due to easier reporting mechanisms, not necessarily higher incidence.
According to the report, Europe's social-safety net may reduce economic incentives to steal, while America's higher incarceration rates and more intensive policing could partially offset crime levels — though the data does not allow definitive causal conclusions.
Reasons for Cautious Optimism
Despite the disparities, the study's findings carry a broadly encouraging message. Murder rates in both London and New York are at record lows. Personal robbery in Paris has halved over the past decade. Overall, the researchers concluded that cities on both continents are safer, more liveable, and more dynamic than they were a generation ago. The data, Ashby argued, equips policymakers to ask sharper questions about crime trends rather than rely on perception alone.
Point of View
But the study's deeper value lies in what it complicates. Robbery rates in London and Paris rival American cities; burglary is a European problem; and New York outperforms most of the continent on vehicle theft. The narrative of a uniformly safer Europe or a uniformly dangerous America does not survive contact with granular data. More critically, Ashby's own 'least-worst attempt' framing is a reminder that cross-national crime comparison is still methodologically immature — and that policymakers who cite these numbers without that caveat risk drawing the wrong lessons.
NationPress
12 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the UCL crime study find about Europe vs America?
The UCL study found that homicide rates are dramatically higher in American cities — Chicago recorded 22 per 100,000 against Europe's average of 1.7 — but other crimes such as personal robbery and domestic burglary are broadly comparable or higher in some European cities. The overall picture is more nuanced than popular perception suggests.
Which city had the highest homicide rate in the study?
Chicago had the highest homicide rate among all 20 cities studied, recording 587 homicides in 2024 at a rate of 22 per 100,000 residents — 2.7 times the rate of Los Angeles and nearly 13 times the European city average.
How did London and Paris compare on crime?
London and Paris each recorded more than 300 personal robberies per 100,000 annually, placing them on par with several American cities on that measure. Domestic burglaries were also found to be more frequent in European cities overall.
Why is comparing crime across countries so difficult?
Crime definitions, reporting practices, and geographic boundaries differ significantly between countries. In England and Wales, for example, reported rape figures have doubled over a decade while survey data suggests actual incidents held steady — indicating better reporting, not more crime. Researchers had to harmonise definitions and adjust city boundaries to make the data broadly comparable.
Are cities getting safer overall?
According to the study, yes. Murder rates in both London and New York are at record lows, and personal robbery in Paris has halved over the past decade. Researchers concluded that cities on both continents are generally safer and more liveable than a generation ago.
