The World Food Programme (WFP) on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, issued a stark warning that severe funding shortfalls are forcing it to drastically scale back operations in Somalia, even as the country braces for potentially catastrophic flooding. Beginning in October, the agency will be able to assist fewer than 5 per cent of Somalis facing emergency hunger — a collapse from the more than 4 million people per month it reached during the 2022–2023 drought response.

Scale of the Funding Collapse

The WFP has confirmed that funding for nutrition treatment will be completely depleted by the end of September 2026. The agency's latest report flags that nearly 2 million children are projected to suffer acute malnutrition across Somalia in 2026, including 433,000 children facing severe acute malnutrition who require urgent treatment. 'Malnutrition remains alarmingly high,' the WFP stated in its report. The withdrawal of aid arrives at a moment when one-third of Somalia's population — 5.4 million people — is already acutely food insecure, with nearly 1.5 million facing emergency-level hunger between October and December.

El Niño Flooding Threat Compounds the Crisis

Somalia is entering the October–December Deyr rainy season under what the WFP describes as a high-risk climate scenario. El Niño conditions are forecast to bring above-normal rainfall across parts of central and southern Somalia, with climate signals that mirror the severe flood events of 1997 and 2023 — the country's two worst flood benchmarks. Areas along the Juba and Shabelle river basins face the highest exposure, raising serious concerns over widespread displacement, destruction of livelihoods, and disruption to humanitarian access routes.

OCHA: Up to 3.4 Million People at Risk

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) separately warned last week that projected El Niño rains and severe flooding could affect up to 3.4 million people across 16 regions of Somalia between October and December. In a statement dated 22 September, OCHA cautioned that 'the potential flooding might match or surpass the severe 2023 and 1997 seasons — Somalia's two worst flood benchmarks — and arrive before communities recover from the prolonged drought this year.' The agency also flagged that at least 380 health facilities have already closed or scaled back operations due to critical funding shortages, dramatically increasing the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks if flooding materialises alongside inadequate sanitation.

A Humanitarian System Under Strain

The convergence of drought recovery, imminent flooding, nutritional collapse, and aid funding gaps represents a compounding crisis that humanitarian analysts say is increasingly common across the Horn of Africa. This is not Somalia's first funding-driven retreat — the 2011 famine, which killed an estimated 260,000 people, was also preceded by warnings that went under-resourced. Notably, the current shortfall arrives against a global backdrop of donor fatigue, with multiple simultaneous crises competing for a constrained pool of humanitarian funding. The WFP has not publicly named the donors whose contributions have lapsed, but the scale of the gap suggests systemic rather than incidental withdrawal.

What Happens Next

With nutrition funding exhausted and food assistance near zero for the most vulnerable, humanitarian organisations are calling urgently for emergency replenishment from donor governments. The coming weeks — when El Niño rains are expected to intensify — will be critical. If flood forecasts prove accurate and the funding gap persists, Somalia could face a simultaneous food, health, and displacement emergency of a scale not seen since 2023.