Al-Qaeda marked the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks by releasing a video featuring Hamza bin Laden, son of slain founder Osama bin Laden, in what intelligence officials describe as a calculated move to revive the Bin Laden legacy, consolidate its fragmented leadership, and reactivate a decades-old strategy now increasingly aimed at India. The development has placed security agencies on heightened alert globally, with inputs pointing to a gradual resurgence of the terror network.

The 'Vanguard Doctrine' Returns

According to an Intelligence Bureau (IB) official, Al-Qaeda has been propagating heavily through its various communication channels for the revival of what it calls the 'vanguard doctrine' — a strategic framework the outfit first articulated in 1998 under the Arabic term al-Qaeda al-Sulbah, meaning 'The Solid Base.' The doctrine, upon which Osama bin Laden originally built the organisation, centres on transforming localised grievances into global religious campaigns.

'In recent communications, Al-Qaeda through its various communication channels has been propagating heavily for the revival of the vanguard doctrine,' the official said. The revival signals a deliberate pivot away from direct military confrontation toward high-profile, spectacular attacks — modelled on the September 11, 2001, strikes in the United States.

India in the Crosshairs: The AQIS Strategy

Al-Qaeda's sub-continental branch, known as Al-Qaeda in the Sub-Continent (AQIS), had initially declared direct confrontation with the Indian state. Over time, however, the outfit acknowledged that engaging India's security apparatus in a conventional fight was untenable, prompting a strategic recalibration, officials said.

The revised approach, according to the IB official, focuses on forcing the Indian state into perceived conflicts with Islamic nations — a framing designed to enable Al-Qaeda to reach local populations and radicalise them. Jammu and Kashmir and the northeastern states are specifically identified as sensitive theatres where the outfit intends to exploit even minor local protests, give them a religious dimension, and amplify them as global campaigns.

Disinformation and Radicalisation as Weapons

Officials warn that Al-Qaeda's primary tools in this phase are not bombs but narratives. 'The outfit would use its media channels to spread disinformation, promote its violent ideology and circulate propaganda. The aim is to incite people and gradually draw them into the radicalisation process,' a second official said.

This approach is particularly concerning in the current global environment where large-scale protests have erupted across multiple countries, including in India. Counter-terrorism experts note that Al-Qaeda's slow-burn strategy — picking local issues and giving them a religious spin — is designed to look like retreat while building dangerous undercurrents. 'On the surface, it would appear as though the outfit is in retreat mode. However, there is a dangerous undercurrent whereby the outfit is playing a big game which would eventually have a devastating effect on society,' the experts warned.

The Broader Threat Landscape

Al-Qaeda's post-Bin Laden trajectory had seen it shift focus toward confronting superpowers directly — a strategy that largely failed and was compounded by the rise of the Islamic State (IS), which drew away recruits and global attention. The revival of the vanguard doctrine represents, analysts say, a course correction: leaner, more decentralised, and more insidious.

The IB official noted that Al-Qaeda had originally set out to battle America and European nations, but came to recognise the futility of challenging superpowers in sustained conflict. The current strategy acknowledges these constraints while identifying more vulnerable entry points — communal fault lines, regional unrest, and information ecosystems susceptible to manipulation.

What Security Agencies Are Doing

Counter-terrorism experts have called on Indian security agencies to coordinate closely with international counterparts and maintain a 'very close watch' on Al-Qaeda's internal developments. Intelligence agencies across the world are, according to officials, already engaged in active monitoring of the network's resurgence.

The pace of the threat, officials caution, should not breed complacency — Al-Qaeda's deliberate, slow-moving approach is itself part of the strategy, making it harder to detect and disrupt at an early stage. How swiftly India's counter-radicalisation architecture adapts to this non-kinetic threat will be a defining test in the months ahead.