Assam LoP Debabrata Saikia doubts exit polls, cites silent voter undercurrent
Synopsis
Assam's Leader of the Opposition Debabrata Saikia is betting on voters who stayed silent — and he's invoking West Bengal's surprise result to make his case. With exit polls out, the Congress leader argues an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with the ruling BJP may only reveal itself when counting begins.
Key Takeaways
Debabrata Saikia , Assam LoP and Congress candidate from Nazira , dismissed exit poll projections on 2 May as unreliable.
He cited the West Bengal Assembly elections , where surveys predicted a BJP win but results differed sharply.
Saikia alleged some voters withheld their preferences fearing backlash from local BJP workers.
He claimed issues of alleged misgovernance and anti-incumbency sentiment could hurt the ruling party on counting day.
The Congress leader said the final outcome in Assam will hinge on the decisions of silent voters .
Debabrata Saikia, Leader of the Opposition in the Assam Legislative Assembly, on Saturday, 2 May expressed scepticism over the reliability of exit polls predicting the outcome of the Assembly elections, asserting that such projections have often failed to capture the true mandate of voters. Speaking to reporters in Guwahati, Saikia — who is also the Indian National Congress (INC) candidate from the Nazira Assembly constituency — said he does not place much faith in exit poll estimates, pointing to past elections where such forecasts were decisively overturned on counting day.
West Bengal as a Cautionary Example
Saikia cited the West Bengal Assembly elections as a prominent case where pre-result projections missed the mark. Several surveys had forecast a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in that contest, but the final results turned out very differently. He argued that this example illustrates how exit polls cannot always gauge the actual mood of the electorate, particularly in politically charged environments.
The 'Silent Voter' Factor
The senior Congress leader claimed that the political atmosphere in Assam this time appears significantly different from previous elections. According to Saikia, many voters reportedly chose to remain guarded about their preferences during polling, making it difficult for agencies to accurately assess public sentiment through post-vote surveys. He suggested that this silence among a section of voters could indicate an undercurrent in favour of political change in the state.
Saikia further alleged that some voters were hesitant to reveal their choices due to fear of possible backlash from local BJP workers. He maintained that people dissatisfied with the present administration may have preferred to keep their decisions private rather than discuss them openly.
Anti-Incumbency and Governance Concerns
Saikia also claimed that issues such as alleged misgovernance, public resentment, and anti-incumbency sentiment could weigh heavily on the ruling party when votes are counted. He did not provide specific figures or cite independent data to substantiate these claims, and they represent his political assessment rather than independently verified findings.
What Saikia Expects on Counting Day
Maintaining confidence in his party's prospects, Saikia said the eventual verdict would depend largely on the role of these so-called
Point of View
Where it actually proved correct. The question for Assam is whether the conditions are comparable: a consolidated minority vote, a credible alternative, and a ruling party that has governed through a mix of welfare and polarisation. Exit polls have structural blind spots in states with high social pressure around vote disclosure, and Assam's ethnic and linguistic diversity makes uniform sampling harder. Whether Saikia's confidence is grounded in ground-level intelligence or is simply pre-counting spin will become clear on results day — but dismissing the silent voter argument entirely, given recent electoral history, would be premature.
NationPress
31 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Assam LoP Debabrata Saikia questioning exit polls?
Debabrata Saikia says exit polls have a poor track record of predicting final mandates, citing the West Bengal Assembly elections where surveys forecast a BJP win but the result went the other way. He believes a similar undercurrent of silent voters may be present in Assam.
Who is Debabrata Saikia?
Debabrata Saikia is the Leader of the Opposition in the Assam Legislative Assembly and a senior Indian National Congress leader. He is also the Congress candidate from the Nazira Assembly constituency in the current elections.
What does Saikia mean by 'silent voters' in Assam?
Saikia refers to voters who reportedly did not reveal their electoral preferences during or after polling, allegedly out of fear of backlash from local BJP workers. He argues these voters could swing the result in favour of the opposition when counting takes place.
What issues does Saikia say could hurt the BJP in Assam?
Saikia has claimed that alleged misgovernance, public resentment, and anti-incumbency sentiment could weigh against the ruling party. These are his political assertions and have not been independently verified.
How have exit polls performed in past Indian state elections?
Exit polls have notably misfired in several Indian state elections, most prominently in West Bengal 2021, where multiple surveys predicted a BJP majority but the Trinamool Congress won a decisive mandate. Such instances have fuelled recurring debate about the methodology and reliability of post-poll surveys.
