Will the NDA Claim Victory in Bihar's Upcoming Elections?
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Synopsis
As Bihar gears up for its 2025 Assembly elections, the Polstrat Opinion Poll reveals a significant lead for the NDA over the Mahagathbandhan. With emerging contenders like Jan Suraaj appealing to young voters, the political landscape is shifting. What do these findings mean for Bihar's future? Stay tuned for insights!
Key Takeaways
- NDA projected to lead with 44.80% vote share.
- Mahagathbandhan trailing at 38.60%.
- Jan Suraaj gaining traction among young voters.
- NDA expected to win 133-142 seats.
- Mahagathbandhan likely to secure 80-88 seats.
New Delhi, Nov 4 (NationPress) In a departure from previous assessments suggesting a closely fought race between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left), the Polstrat Opinion Poll has indicated a definitive and comfortable triumph for the current ruling coalition in the critical electoral contest for Bihar.
Significantly, the Polstrat poll reveals the rise of new contender Jan Suraaj, which is becoming an essential factor in Bihar's political dynamics, particularly appealing to the youth demographic aged 18-25.
Released on Tuesday, the Polstrat Opinion Poll for the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 is based on a substantial sample size of 8.42 lakh participants.
The findings suggest that the BJP-led NDA is likely to secure a commanding lead over the primary opposition led by the RJD, positioning itself to regain power with a decisive majority.
According to the survey, the NDA is projected to garner 44.80 percent of the vote share, while the grand alliance lags at 38.60 percent.
This 6 percent disparity in vote share is reflected in the expected seat margins, with the NDA anticipated to win between 133-142 seats, while the grand alliance is expected to capture 80-88 seats.
The NDA's seat distribution is expected to see the BJP winning 70-72 seats, JD (U) achieving 53-56 seats, and smaller allies such as LJP and HAM likely securing 10-12 and 0-2 seats, respectively.
Within the Mahagathbandhan, the power dynamics continue to favor the RJD, which is projected to win 69-72 seats, while the Congress may achieve success in just 10-13 seats, according to the survey.
The Polstrat Opinion Poll also examined voting trends across age demographics. It shows a significant proportion of young voters leaning towards the Mahagathbandhan, nearly matching the NDA's support.
Among those aged 18-25, the grand alliance is leading with 40.73 percent of the vote share, while the NDA is ahead in the 26-40 age group with 43.18 percent.
For older voters, the NDA remains the preferred choice, with more than 47 percent support in both the 41-59 and senior citizen demographics.
Notably, Jan Suraaj, led by Prashant Kishor, is gaining traction among young voters, capturing over 12 percent support in the 18-25 age group.
Another polling agency, Chanakya Strategies, has issued comparable predictions in its pre-election survey for Bihar.
According to their analysis, the NDA is projected to win 128-134 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure 102-108 seats in the 243-member Assembly.
Other parties, including Owaisi-led AIMIM, Pashupati Paras-led RLJP, and ASP, contesting on 25 seats independently, are predicted to obtain 0-3 seats in this fiercely contested election.
Point of View
It is essential to approach the Bihar elections with a focus on balanced reporting. The current polls suggest a strong position for the NDA, yet the presence of new parties and shifting voter demographics could reshape the electoral landscape. Our commitment is to provide our audience with thorough insights while ensuring we remain impartial and factual.
NationPress
04/11/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the NDA's projected vote share in the upcoming Bihar elections?
The NDA is projected to secure approximately 44.80 percent of the vote share according to the latest Polstrat Opinion Poll.
How many seats is the NDA expected to win?
The NDA is anticipated to win between 133 and 142 seats in the Bihar Assembly elections.
What role is Jan Suraaj expected to play in the elections?
Jan Suraaj, led by Prashant Kishor, is emerging as a significant contender, particularly among young voters aged 18-25.
How does the Mahagathbandhan fare in the polls?
The Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure between 80 and 88 seats, with a vote share of approximately 38.60 percent.
What are the implications of the polling results?
These polling results indicate a strong lead for the NDA, but the presence of emerging players and shifting demographics could influence the final outcomes.
