Vijayan 3.0? The Ascending BJP Influence in Kerala’s Upcoming Assembly Elections

Thiruvananthapuram, March 28 (NationPress) With slightly more than a year remaining until the next Kerala Assembly elections, conversations are already underway regarding the potential for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan to achieve a historic third consecutive term. Concurrently, the escalating impact of the BJP in the state has become a focal point of discussion.

Vijayan, together with CPI(M) state secretary M.V. Govindan and other party officials, has started to suggest the possibility of a momentous third term for the Left Democratic Front (LDF). This has invigorated party supporters who were previously uncertain due to the hurdles faced by Vijayan during his second term.

Traditionally, Kerala has oscillated between the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, but Vijayan disrupted this trend by steering the Left to victory in 2021.

The BJP, which has previously struggled to establish a presence in the state, made headlines in 2024 by securing its inaugural Lok Sabha seat from Thrissur, where actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi managed to push the Congress into third place.

Although its achievements in state elections have been minimal -- with only one Assembly seat won in 2016 and none in 2021 -- the BJP has consistently increased its vote share. In 2021, it garnered 12.41% of the votes, finishing second in nine constituencies. This figure rose to 15.64% during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The LDF won 99 of the 140 Assembly seats in 2021 with 45.43% of the vote, while the UDF secured 41 seats with 39.47%. Following the BJP’s breakthrough in Thrissur, the Congress accused the Left of having a covert arrangement with the BJP to facilitate Gopi’s victory. In contrast, the CPI(M) countered these claims by blaming Congress for aiding the BJP by dividing the anti-BJP vote.

With both the Congress and CPI(M) exchanging allegations regarding supposed connections with the BJP, a political analyst, who wished to remain anonymous, noted that the BJP's main opponent at the national level is Congress, not CPI(M) in Kerala.

“The BJP’s approach in the South aims to hinder Congress and its allies from regaining power. For instance, discussions of a BJP-AIADMK collaboration have surfaced in Tamil Nadu. If the Congress in Kerala cannot resolve its internal strife, a third term for Vijayan remains a possibility,” stated the political analyst.

As BJP leader and former MoS Rajeev Chandrasekhar heads the party’s Kerala unit, all eyes are on the forthcoming Nilambur Assembly by-election and local body elections later this year, which may provide early indications of the BJP’s strategy in the state.