IMD forecasts dry Durga Puja weather across Northeast, Oct 16–21
Synopsis
The IMD has handed Northeast India's Durga Puja revellers an early gift: a largely rain-free five-day festive window from Sasthi to Vijaya Dashami. But the seasonal picture has a shadow — the region logged a steep 26 per cent monsoon rainfall deficit even as the season wrapped on schedule, raising quiet questions about agricultural impact heading into winter.
Key Takeaways
IMD forecast dry, largely rain-free weather across the Northeast from Sasthi to Vijaya Dashami (21 October) .
The forecast covers all eight Northeastern states : Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura.
Maximum temperatures are expected to be 2–4°C above normal over the next five days.
The Southwest monsoon withdrew from the entire Northeast by 15 October , close to its normal date.
The region recorded a 26 per cent deficit in average monsoon rainfall during June–September 2026 .
Winter conditions are expected to set in during the latter part of November .
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday, 16 October 2026, forecast largely dry and rain-free conditions across most of the Northeastern region from Sasthi (Bodhan) through Vijaya Dashami on 21 October, offering welcome relief to millions of Durga Puja revellers across the eight-state zone.
What the Forecast Says
A senior IMD official confirmed that dry weather is very likely to prevail across all eight Northeastern states — Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura — over the coming days. The official added a note of caution, however, stating that light rain may occur at one or two isolated locations within the region.
Maximum temperatures are expected to stay 2–4 degrees Celsius above normal over the next five days, while minimum temperatures are likely to remain near-normal during the same period, according to the official.
Monsoon Withdrawal Confirmed
Separately, IMD officials confirmed that the Southwest monsoon had withdrawn from the entire Northeastern region as of 15 October, a date described as close to its normal withdrawal schedule. In comparison, the monsoon had withdrawn from the region on 14 October 2025, just one day earlier.
This year's monsoon advanced into substantial parts of the Northeast on 7 June — two days later than its normal onset date — before covering the entire region by 10 June, marking the start of the four-month rainy season. Despite the broad and relatively timely coverage, the region recorded a 26 per cent deficit in average rainfall during the June–September monsoon season.
Impact on Durga Puja Celebrations
The five-day Durga Puja festivities commenced on Friday, with devotees and revellers gathering at elaborately decorated pandals across the region amid colourful decorations, cultural programmes, and religious observances. The dry spell forecast is expected to significantly ease movement between pandals and boost footfall at outdoor events throughout the festive window.
Notably, a rain-free Durga Puja carries economic significance as well — vendors, organisers, and the broader local economy in states like Assam and Tripura depend heavily on uninterrupted outdoor gatherings during the festival, one of the region's most commercially active periods.
Transition to Winter
Looking beyond the festival season, IMD officials indicated that winter is likely to begin making itself felt in the latter part of November. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to gradually decline from now onwards, marking the region's seasonal transition away from the monsoon and into cooler months. The full withdrawal of the Southwest monsoon from all eight states by 15 October effectively closes this year's monsoon chapter for the Northeast.
Point of View
But the 26 per cent monsoon rainfall deficit buried in the same briefing deserves separate scrutiny. The Northeast's agricultural calendar and water table depend heavily on monsoon quantum, not just timing. A near-normal withdrawal date with well-below-normal accumulation is a combination that can mask stress — and the region's kharif output data, when it arrives, will tell a more complete story than the festive weather bulletin.
NationPress
17 Oct 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Will it rain during Durga Puja 2026 in Northeast India?
The IMD has forecast largely dry and rain-free conditions across most of Northeast India from Sasthi (Bodhan) through Vijaya Dashami on 21 October 2026. Light rain may occur at one or two isolated spots, but the overall festive period is expected to be dry.
Which states are covered by the IMD dry weather forecast?
The forecast covers all eight Northeastern states: Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura. The IMD confirmed the outlook applies to the entire region through 21 October.
When did the Southwest monsoon withdraw from Northeast India in 2026?
The Southwest monsoon withdrew from the entire Northeastern region by 15 October 2026, which is close to its normal withdrawal date. In 2025, the withdrawal occurred one day earlier, on 14 October.
What was the monsoon rainfall situation in Northeast India in 2026?
Despite the monsoon covering the entire Northeast by 10 June 2026, the region recorded a 26 per cent deficit in average rainfall during the June–September monsoon season. The monsoon onset was also two days later than normal, arriving on 7 June.
When will winter begin in Northeast India?
IMD officials indicated that winter conditions are likely to be felt from the latter part of November 2026 onwards. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to gradually decrease from mid-October as the post-monsoon transition progresses.
