The southwest monsoon is set to withdraw from the plains of North India — including Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh — within the next 48 hours, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The retreat, however, will not mean dry weather immediately, as a fresh spell of rainfall is expected across several states in the days that follow.

State-wise Rainfall Forecast: October 5–7

The IMD has forecast rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Punjab on 6 and 7 October. Himachal Pradesh is likely to receive heavy rainfall from 5 to 7 October, while Jammu and Kashmir can expect rain from 6 to 7 October. Uttarakhand is also under a heavy-rain forecast for 5 to 7 October, with thunderstorms and gusty winds anticipated over both Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during this period.

In central India, rainfall is expected to continue over Madhya Pradesh until 3 October, while Chhattisgarh is likely to receive rain from 2 to 7 October. Bihar and Jharkhand may also see rainfall between 5 and 7 October.

Along the coasts and the Northeast, isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and parts of the northeastern region. Monsoon activity around Imphal, the capital of Manipur, has persisted, and rainfall is forecast to continue in Meghalaya, Assam, Tripura, and Arunachal Pradesh.

Full Monsoon Withdrawal Timeline

The IMD has outlined a phased withdrawal across the country. During the first week of October, the monsoon is expected to pull back from eastern Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and the remaining parts of Haryana. Between 8 and 14 October, withdrawal is anticipated from Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, and the northeastern region.

Following the retreat from Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, monsoon activity is also expected to cease over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Gujarat by the second week of October. Rainfall activity overall is likely to remain subdued between 1 and 7 October, with a further decline forecast during the second week. Notably, a fresh low-pressure area may develop over the Andaman Sea around 13 October, which could influence conditions thereafter.

Post-Monsoon Outlook: October to December

The IMD has forecast post-monsoon rainfall between October and December for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala, Mahe, and south interior Karnataka. Overall post-monsoon rainfall is most likely to remain between 88 and 112 per cent of the long-period average. Most parts of the country — except the southern peninsula and parts of northwest India — are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during this period.

How the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Performed

The four-month southwest monsoon season from June to September 2026 recorded average rainfall of around 87 per cent of normal — a below-normal outcome. The season was characterised by alternating spells of heavy rain and prolonged dry periods.

Central India, encompassing Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, fared best at around 97 per cent of normal, while northwest India — including Delhi and Uttar Pradesh — recorded approximately 94 per cent. The southern peninsula and Northeast India received only around 76 per cent and 74 per cent of normal rainfall respectively, highlighting a significant regional deficit.

These figures were rescued in part by intense activity in August and September. A deep depression that formed over Andhra Pradesh in late September brought significant rainfall to Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Between 24 and 27 September, heavy rainfall was recorded across Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. A second deep depression formed over the Andaman Sea and the adjoining Myanmar coast on 28 September, prolonging rainfall activity in several regions.

With the monsoon now on its way out, attention shifts to the post-monsoon season and whether the projected low-pressure system over the Andaman Sea delivers meaningful rainfall to drought-stressed regions in the south.