The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a five-day weather alert for Delhi-NCR, forecasting intermittent rainfall on 27 June and again between 1 and 2 July, as the southwest monsoon continues its gradual northward advance across the subcontinent. While the monsoon has not yet fully established itself over northwestern India, the incoming showers are expected to bring meaningful relief from the persistent heat gripping the national capital and neighbouring regions including Noida and Ghaziabad.

What the IMD Forecast Says

According to the weather department, Delhi's skies will remain partly cloudy over the next five days, with daytime sunshine giving way to afternoon gusty winds and isolated evening showers. Similar conditions are expected across adjoining areas in the Delhi-NCR belt. The IMD has also flagged weather changes across Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh.

In Rajasthan, western districts are under a rain alert for 27 June, with the possibility of thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds reaching up to 50 kmph between 28 June and 2 July. Eastern Rajasthan faces similar conditions through 2 July. Uttarakhand is expected to see thunderstorms with lightning and rain between 30 June and 2 July.

Why the Monsoon Is Moving Slowly

Meteorologists attribute the current pause in monsoon activity to the absence of strong low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. Such systems are critical for drawing moisture inland and spreading rainfall across central and northern India. Without them, the moisture-laden southwesterly winds remain relatively weak, producing scattered rather than widespread rainfall.

Recent satellite imagery from INSAT-3DS shows dense monsoon cloud cover over central India, the Bay of Bengal, northeastern states, and parts of southern India. However, large parts of Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Punjab, western Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan continue to record relatively clear skies, confirming that the monsoon has not yet fully covered these regions.

How Monsoon Advance Is Officially Determined

The IMD clarified that the official advance of the monsoon is determined by a combination of wind patterns, moisture levels, and sustained rainfall over a large area — not simultaneous rainfall in every district. As a result, a state can officially fall under monsoon influence even as several cities within it continue to experience hot and dry conditions for a few more days.

Conditions Becoming Favourable for Wider Coverage

The weather office indicated that conditions are turning favourable for the southwest monsoon to advance into more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand over the next three to four days.

Weather models suggest a large tropical weather system is expected to develop over the eastern Indian Ocean and move into the Bay of Bengal over the next four to seven days. If the system develops as projected, it could strengthen monsoon flow and trigger the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal along with a middle-tropospheric vortex over western India — potentially intensifying rainfall during the first week of July and accelerating the monsoon's progress across the remaining parts of northwest India, including Delhi-NCR.