Will September Bring More Rain and Nature's Fury?
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Synopsis
As the nation continues to battle severe weather conditions, the IMD's latest forecast predicts a September with increased rainfall. Discover how this could impact agriculture, water resources, and public health. Prepare for the challenges that lie ahead with expert insights into managing potential risks.
Key Takeaways
- IMD forecasts above normal rainfall for September.
- Potential benefits for agriculture and water resources.
- Risks include flooding and landslides.
- Strengthening infrastructure is essential for risk management.
- MME forecasting system provides accurate predictions.
New Delhi, Aug 31 (NationPress) As numerous regions across the nation grapple with floods, landslides, and cloudbursts, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) unveiled its monthly report on Sunday, predicting a wetter September characterized by above normal rainfall.
The IMD’s Monthly Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature indicates that the average monthly rainfall for September 2025 is likely to exceed normal levels, surpassing 109 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
According to the report, the LPA for rainfall during September, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at approximately 167.9 mm.
Geographically, the majority of the country is expected to experience normal to above-normal rainfall. Yet, certain regions in northeast and east India, many areas in the extreme southern peninsular India, and parts of northernmost India may see below-normal rainfall, the IMD report highlighted.
While above-normal rainfall can significantly enhance agriculture and water resources, it also poses potential risks such as flooding, landslides, disruptions to surface transport, public health challenges, and damage to ecosystems.
To effectively manage these risks, it is crucial to strengthen infrastructure, utilize the IMD's early warnings, improve surveillance and conservation efforts, and establish robust response systems in vulnerable sectors.
Since 2021, the IMD has been providing monthly and seasonal forecasts for southwest monsoon rainfall across the nation, relying on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system.
This MME method employs coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from various global climate prediction and research centers, including the IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS).
The IMD issued its initial forecast for the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June to September) on April 15, with updates provided on May 27.
Additionally, forecasts for rainfall in June and July were issued on May 27 and June 30, respectively.
The Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Forecast for the August-September 2025 seasonal rainfall and the Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for August 2025 was released on July 31.
Regarding surface air temperature forecasts for September, the IMD indicated that average maximum temperatures are anticipated to remain normal to below normal in several regions of west-central, northwest, and south India.
Conversely, temperatures are likely to be above normal in many parts of east-central, east, northeast India, and certain areas along the western coastal region.
Point of View
It's crucial to acknowledge the serious implications of the IMD's forecast. While increased rainfall can support agricultural productivity, it also poses substantial risks that must be managed effectively. The government's focus should be on bolstering infrastructure and establishing responsive systems to safeguard vulnerable communities.
NationPress
31/08/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the IMD predict for September 2025?
The IMD forecasts above normal rainfall for September 2025, which could exceed 109% of the Long Period Average.
Which regions are likely to experience below-normal rainfall?
Certain areas in northeast and east India, as well as parts of extreme southern peninsular India and northernmost India, may see below-normal rainfall.
What are the potential risks associated with above-normal rainfall?
Potential risks include flooding, landslides, disruptions to transport, public health challenges, and damage to ecosystems.
How can risks from severe weather be managed?
Strengthening infrastructure, utilizing early warnings, enhancing surveillance, and establishing response systems are essential to manage risks effectively.
What is the IMD's forecasting system based on?
The IMD uses the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system, which incorporates global climate models from various research centers.
