The India Meteorological Department (IMD), Meteorological Centre Bhopal, has issued a warning of thunderstorms, lightning, heavy to very heavy rainfall, and gusty winds across several districts of Madhya Pradesh over the five-day period from 26 to 30 October. The alert is linked to Cyclone Arnab, currently lying over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, which is driving the weather system affecting central India.

Cyclone Arnab: Trajectory and Intensity

Cyclone Arnab is expected to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by midnight of 26 October, and further escalate into a very severe cyclonic storm by 27 October. According to the IMD, the storm is likely to make landfall along the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts — between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam — around the forenoon of 28 October, with maximum sustained winds of 115–125 kmph, gusting up to 140 kmph.

This comes amid two additional weather systems: a western disturbance over north Haryana and an upper-air cyclonic circulation over southwest Rajasthan. A fresh western disturbance is also expected to affect northwest India from the night of 27 October, compounding the overall rainfall intensity across central and northern parts of the country.

Districts Under Warning in Madhya Pradesh

The IMD's district-wise forecast flags thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds of 30–40 kmph or 40–50 kmph at many places, particularly in eastern and central Madhya Pradesh. Districts facing heavy to very heavy rainfall between 26 and 30 October include Singrauli, Sidhi, Rewa, Mauganj, Satna, Anuppur, Shahdol, Umaria, Dindori, Mandla, Balaghat, Katni, Jabalpur, Seoni, Chhindwara, Narsinghpur, Damoh, Sagar, and Chhatarpur, among others.

Western and northern districts — including Bhopal, Vidisha, Raisen, Sehore, Narmadapuram, Betul, Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, and Morena — may also experience thunderstorms and gusty winds, though the primary impact zone remains the eastern corridor of the state.

Risks and Possible Disruptions

The IMD has cautioned residents about potential waterlogging in low-lying areas, a rise in water levels of rivers and streams, disruption of traffic, damage to structurally weak buildings, and temporary power outages. Notably, late October rainfall of this magnitude is unusual for Madhya Pradesh, where the monsoon retreat is typically underway — making this system a significant outlier in the seasonal calendar.

Advisories for Farmers and Residents

Farmers have been specifically advised by the IMD to avoid irrigation, fertiliser application, and spraying during the rain period. They have also been asked to ensure proper drainage in fields, provide support to young plants, protect harvested produce from moisture damage, and move livestock to safe shelters.

Residents, meanwhile, are urged to stay indoors during thunderstorms, avoid sheltering under trees, and keep away from water bodies. Officials have asked people to follow real-time updates from authorised weather sources. The situation will be closely monitored over the coming days as Cyclone Arnab's inland effects become clearer after its expected landfall on 28 October.