India's merchandise exports surge 23% to $44.4 bn, a 4-month high in September
Synopsis
India's export engine roared back to a four-month high in September, with shipments surging over 23 per cent despite Middle East shipping chaos and global demand uncertainty. The gain has also begun reversing a three-year slide in exports as a share of GDP — a structural signal that goes beyond a single month's headline number.
Key Takeaways
India's merchandise exports grew 23.04% year-on-year to a 4-month high of $44.4 billion in September 2026 .
Imports rose 8% to $74.61 billion , driven by higher crude oil prices .
The merchandise trade deficit narrowed year-on-year to $30.21 billion from ~ $33 billion in September 2025 .
Cumulative exports for April–September 2026 stood at $259.89 billion , up nearly 19% year-on-year.
Exports' share of GDP recovered to 14% in Q1 FY27 , reversing a decline from 11.3% in FY26.
Growth was broad-based, led by petroleum products , meat and dairy , handicrafts , and cereals .
India's merchandise exports jumped 23.04 per cent year-on-year to a four-month high of $44.4 billion in September 2026, defying global headwinds including shipping disruptions linked to the escalating Middle East conflict, according to official figures released on Thursday, 15 October. The data underscores a sustained recovery in India's outbound trade after two successive years of subdued growth.
Broad-Based Sectoral Growth
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal said the growth trend in India's exports was continuing, signalling sustained momentum in outbound shipments. He attributed the expansion to a broad-based rise in shipments across sectors, with particularly strong performances in petroleum products, meat, dairy and poultry products, handicrafts, and select cereals.
The diversified nature of the growth is notable — it suggests the export uptick is not concentrated in a single commodity or destination, reducing vulnerability to any one external shock.
Imports Rise, Trade Deficit Narrows Year-on-Year
Imports climbed 8 per cent to $74.61 billion in September, driven primarily by higher crude oil prices in global markets. Despite the rise in imports, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $30.21 billion from roughly $33 billion in September 2025 — a year-on-year improvement.
However, on a sequential basis, the deficit widened from $26.86 billion recorded in August 2026, a signal that month-on-month pressures from energy imports remain a concern.
First-Half FY27 Cumulative Picture
For the April–September 2026 period, cumulative merchandise exports stood at $259.89 billion, up nearly 19 per cent year-on-year. Imports over the same six months rose 16 per cent year-on-year to $437.53 billion, leaving a cumulative merchandise trade deficit of $177.64 billion for the first half of FY2026-27.
Exports Reclaim Ground in GDP Share
The resurgence in shipments has begun reversing a multi-year slide in exports' contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Exports accounted for 14 per cent of GDP in the first quarter of FY27 — a meaningful recovery after the share fell to 11.3 per cent in FY26 from 11.7 per cent in FY25.
This comes amid a backdrop of sluggish global demand in FY24 and FY25, compounded by the disruptions triggered by US tariff turbulence in FY26. The improvement in the GDP share marks the first clear reversal of that three-year declining trend.
What to Watch Next
Sustained export momentum will depend on whether geopolitical pressures in the Middle East ease — shipping disruptions have already added to freight costs and delivery timelines. Commodity price volatility, particularly in crude oil, will also determine the import bill trajectory. With the festive season typically boosting certain export categories, the October print will be a key indicator of whether September's performance was a turning point or a one-month spike.
Point of View
But the sequential widening of the trade deficit — from $26.86 billion in August to $30.21 billion — shows that crude oil imports continue to offset gains. More telling is the GDP share recovery: exports climbing back to 14 per cent in Q1 FY27 after three years of decline is the structural signal policymakers have been waiting for, yet it remains fragile. The Middle East conflict is not just a humanitarian crisis; it is a live freight-cost variable that could compress margins for Indian exporters even as volumes hold. The real test is whether the April–September momentum survives a potential second-half global slowdown — and whether the government's trade policy architecture is nimble enough to redirect flows if key Western markets weaken further.
NationPress
15 Oct 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did India's merchandise exports grow in September 2026?
India's merchandise exports grew 23.04 per cent year-on-year to $44.4 billion in September 2026, the highest level in four months. The growth was broad-based, spanning petroleum products, handicrafts, meat and dairy, and select cereals.
What happened to India's trade deficit in September 2026?
The merchandise trade deficit narrowed year-on-year to $30.21 billion in September 2026, down from roughly $33 billion in September 2025. However, it was sequentially higher than the $26.86 billion recorded in August 2026, largely due to a rise in crude oil import costs.
What is the cumulative export performance for April–September 2026?
Cumulative merchandise exports for April–September 2026 stood at $259.89 billion , up nearly 19 per cent year-on-year. Imports over the same period rose 16 per cent to $437.53 billion , resulting in a six-month trade deficit of $177.64 billion .
Why is the recovery in exports' GDP share significant?
Exports accounted for 14 per cent of GDP in Q1 FY27, reversing a three-year declining trend. The share had slipped to 11.3 per cent in FY26 from 11.7 per cent in FY25, weighed down by global demand slowdowns and US tariff disruptions.
What risks could affect India's export momentum going forward?
Key risks include ongoing shipping disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict , which raise freight costs and delay deliveries. Additionally, elevated crude oil prices continue to inflate the import bill, and any renewed global demand slowdown in the second half of FY27 could temper the recent gains.
