India's private sector capital expenditure is projected to rise to ₹3.2 lakh crore in 2026-27 from ₹2.6 lakh crore in 2025-26, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) September 2026 bulletin. The forecast holds even as heightened global economic uncertainties continue to cloud the broader investment landscape.

What the Phasing Data Shows

The RBI report tracks the phasing profile of pipeline projects funded through three channels: banks and financial institutions (FIs), external commercial borrowings (ECBs), and initial public offerings (IPOs). Taken together, these financing routes point to a measurable step-up in envisaged capital expenditure in 2026-27 over the previous year.

'Looking ahead, the investment outlook is expected to remain healthy, although heightened global uncertainties are likely to temper the investment sentiment,' the bulletin noted. The report was compiled by Purnendu Kumar, Snigdha Yogindran, Sukti Khandekar, and Bhavyashree K from the RBI's Department of Statistics and Information Management.

Corporate Balance Sheets and Banking Support

The report highlights that Indian corporate balance sheets have strengthened considerably in recent years, driven by deleveraging and robust internal accruals. Simultaneously, the domestic banking system — underpinned by strong capital and liquidity buffers, improved asset quality, and sustained credit growth — continues to underpin economic activity. This dual reinforcement of corporate health and banking resilience provides a structural tailwind for the projected investment uptick.

Infrastructure Leads, Six States Dominate

During 2025-26, the infrastructure sector accounted for a 54.2% share of total project costs, primarily led by Power, followed by Roads and Bridges. Beyond infrastructure, sectors such as construction, chemicals and pesticides, metal and metal products, and cement also held sizeable shares.

Geographically, Maharashtra topped the list in attracting capex projects, followed by Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. These six states together accounted for 67.1% of total project investments during 2025-26.

Scale and Nature of Sanctioned Projects

During 2025-26, 12 mega projects and 100 large projects were sanctioned by banks and FIs. Mega projects and large projects accounted for 17.0% and 51.3% of total project costs, respectively. Greenfield projects — representing entirely new capacity — made up 89.2% of total project costs reported by banks and FIs, broadly consistent with the trend observed in prior years.

Notably, this surge in greenfield investment signals expanding productive capacity rather than mere asset recycling, a distinction that matters for long-run job creation and output. With corporate balance sheets in strong shape and banks willing to lend, the conditions for a private investment revival appear to be firming — the central question is whether global headwinds will erode confidence before projects move from sanction to execution.