Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has sharply pivoted its subversive operations toward Gujarat and Rajasthan in recent months, according to Indian security officials, marking a significant departure from its conventional focus on the Line of Control (LoC) and Jammu and Kashmir. The shift, intelligence sources say, is deliberate — designed to stress India's western economic corridor while creating diversionary pressure on security agencies.

Terror Modules in Gujarat

The busting of a Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)-inspired module by the Gujarat Anti Terrorism Squad (ATS) last week has laid bare the new operational template. According to officials, ISI-backed groups are now recruiting and radicalising locals within Gujarat to build self-sustaining cells, rather than relying on cross-border infiltrators. Most active modules in the state are inspired by one terror outfit or another, with the recently dismantled JeM cell having allegedly conspired to carry out attacks inside the state.

Counter-terrorism officials say the primary targets identified in Gujarat include the state's ports and the oil refinery complex in Jamnagar — both critical nodes in India's energy and trade infrastructure. The intent, they add, is to deliver economically damaging strikes that go beyond symbolic violence.

Rajasthan: Building a Spy Network

The strategy in Rajasthan is structurally different. Here, according to an Intelligence Bureau (IB) official, the ISI's focus is on assembling a large-scale espionage network rather than deploying terror cells. Nearly all recent arrests in the state have been linked to espionage-related cases. The spy ring, officials say, has been tasked with conducting surveillance of economic hubs — gathering intelligence that would enable precise, targeted strikes at a later stage.

'The ISI is playing a well-thought-out game in these western states,' the IB official said. 'The idea is to keep the states on the boil as a target for critical infrastructure.' A second official added that the espionage network in Rajasthan is specifically oriented toward mapping economic assets, so that any future attacks can be surgical in nature.

Fake Currency and Communal Incitement

Beyond kinetic operations, security officials warn that the ISI's western-state playbook includes two additional pressure tools. First, a push to flood both states with fake Indian currency — a tactic designed to corrode economic confidence at the grassroots level. Counter-terrorism experts say operatives have reportedly received instructions to ramp up the circulation of counterfeit notes.

Second, officials say the ISI is actively pushing propaganda material and running false narrative campaigns aimed at inciting communal tensions. The intent is to further stretch the security apparatus, making it harder to concentrate resources on any single threat vector.

The Jammu and Kashmir Diversion Angle

Indian intelligence agencies believe the Gujarat-Rajasthan escalation also serves as a calculated diversion. If multiple strikes are carried out in the western states, the attention of security forces would be pulled away from Jammu and Kashmir — potentially creating a window for the ISI to push militants waiting in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) across the border. Several infiltration attempts have been thwarted in recent months, officials note, leaving terror groups under pressure to find alternative entry routes.

Both Gujarat and Rajasthan share international borders with Pakistan, and officials say the long-term ISI objective may be to establish these corridors as primary infiltration points. Intelligence agencies have advised a heightened state of alert across both states, warning that the ISI is unlikely to scale back and will continue to intensify operations in the months ahead.