Is Debt-ridden Pakistan Surviving on Foreign Borrowing?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
New Delhi, Feb 3 (NationPress) Pakistan, currently grappling with a heavy debt burden, has recently approached the United Arab Emirates (UAE) seeking a rollover of $3 billion in deposits. This move underscores the country's significant reliance on loans from allied nations and the IMF for economic stability.
This trend of frequent rollovers and urgent financial support from friendly nations and the IMF offers temporary relief but has entrenched a precarious economic framework that hinders domestic reforms and distorts incentives, as noted in an article by the Colombo-based Asian News Post.
The article indicates that in early January 2026, Pakistan requested a rollover of $3 billion from the UAE, currently held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), in three installments of $1 billion each. These funds were initially deposited in 2021 to bolster Pakistan’s balance of payments and alleviate pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Official sources suggest that Pakistan anticipates the rollover process will proceed as planned and has assured the IMF that the UAE will uphold these deposits in accordance with commitments made under the ongoing IMF program. This systematic approach reveals Pakistan's reliance on bilateral partners, particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and China, to renew central bank deposits and commercial loans as repayment deadlines loom.
For the current fiscal year, government reports estimate that Pakistan will depend on rollovers totaling around $12 billion from these three partners alone. This highlights how the management of the country's external accounts has become structurally linked to foreign capital rather than domestic export capabilities or productivity-driven growth.
The SBP Governor recently pointed out that for the fiscal year 2025–26, total external repayments will reach approximately $25.8 billion, of which around $9.3 billion is expected to be rolled over, indicating that rollovers have become a routine element of debt management rather than a temporary crisis response.
The borrowing from the IMF follows a similar pattern. In September 2024, the IMF Executive Board approved a new $7 billion, 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan, with disbursements contingent upon 'sound policies and reforms' but also explicitly supported by significant financing assurances and rollovers from China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. IMF representatives have acknowledged that Pakistan has participated in 22 previous IMF programs since 1958, a frequency indicative of ongoing external sector crises and the failure of previous reform attempts to break the cycle of dependency.
Under the new program, Pakistan received an immediate disbursement of $1 billion along with additional commitments; however, the focus remains on stabilization rather than a comprehensive restructuring of the economic model, the article concludes.