Political Allegiances Shift as Kerala CM Faces Anti-Incumbency Ahead of Elections

Thiruvananthapuram, Jan 10 (NationPress) As Kerala prepares for its local body and Assembly elections in 2023 and 2026 respectively, a significant change in political allegiances may be on the horizon.

The CPI(M)-led Left, which has governed Kerala since 2016, is facing challenges of anti-incumbency as Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's approval ratings decline.

The Congress-led UDF, currently in the opposition, is optimistic about taking power in 2026 amidst the ruling party's struggles with anti-incumbency.

Members of the Left coalition are increasingly showing signs of discontent, and with UDF leaders extending invitations, we may witness some defections in the near future.

Notably, during the 2020 local body elections, the Kerala Congress (M), which had faced difficulties within the UDF, formed an informal alliance with the Left.

This partnership led to the Kerala Congress (M) becoming a formal ally of the Left just before the 2021 Assembly elections, following the Left's success in the local body elections.

Its leader, Jose K. Mani, is a member of the Rajya Sabha, and one of their legislators, Roshy Augustine, serves as the state Water Resources Minister in the Vijayan administration.

Similarly, the sole Kerala Congress (B) legislator, Transport Minister K.B. Ganesh Kumar, also defected from the UDF to ally with the Left during the 2021 Assembly elections.

In 2018, the former Janata Dal (U), led by media mogul M.P. Veerendra Kumar, returned to the Left after a brief period with the UDF.

After his passing in 2020, his son M.V. Shreyams Kumar continued as a Rajya Sabha member until the end of his term, and in the 2021 Assembly elections, he contested successfully as a Left ally.

As the Assembly elections approach in April or May 2026, the Kerala Congress (M), along with Kerala Congress (B) members, are becoming increasingly anxious about the declining reputation of the Pinarayi Vijayan government, which is now entering its ninth consecutive year.

A prominent figure from the former Kerala Congress (M), now affiliated with the UDF, indicated that there is growing dissatisfaction among party members led by Jose K Mani regarding their position within the Left.

“The leadership of the churches that have historically supported the Kerala Congress (M) are also expressing their displeasure. The ball is now in the hands of the Congress leading the UDF. It wouldn’t be surprising if Jose and his party decide to join the UDF before the 2026 Assembly elections,” commented the political leader, wishing to remain anonymous.

Already, an olive branch has been extended to the Left by none other than the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which is the second-largest and most influential ally of the Congress.

“The UDF is welcoming, and its doors are always open,” stated PMA Salam, the IUML general secretary.

Furthermore, many in the Congress leadership are keen to incorporate the Kerala Congress (M) due to their significant influence in the central districts of the state.

As the BJP-led NDA strengthens its foothold, the UDF cannot afford to remain in opposition for a third consecutive term.

The recently ousted two-time Left Independent legislator, P.V. Anvar, has expressed interest in joining the UDF.

The IUML recognizes the risks of excluding him and is advocating for his inclusion; Anvar may be the first to join the UDF.

With the budget session of the Kerala Legislative Assembly approaching later this month, Anvar is expected to vocally oppose CM Vijayan.

It remains to be seen how many political figures will switch allegiances in the lead-up to the Assembly elections in Kerala.