Will the Southwest Monsoon Arrive in Kerala by May 27?
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Synopsis
Kerala may witness the early onset of the southwest monsoon on May 27, according to the IMD. This could be the earliest arrival on the mainland since 2009, signaling a vital season for agriculture and water resources.
Key Takeaways
- Kerala is expected to experience the southwest monsoon by May 27.
- The early arrival could be the first since 2009.
- Monsoon is vital for India's agriculture and economy.
- IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall for the season.
- El Nino's impact this year is anticipated to be minimal.
Thiruvananthapuram, May 11 (NationPress) The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the southwest monsoon is anticipated to reach Kerala by May 27, which is earlier than the usual onset date of June 1.
If this prediction proves accurate, it would mark the earliest arrival of the monsoon on the Indian mainland since 2009, when it came on May 23.
The commencement of the monsoon in Kerala heralds the start of the nation’s main rainy season, typically lasting from June to September.
The IMD officially announces the monsoon's onset after specific meteorological conditions are observed in the southern state. Following this, the monsoon generally progresses across the country by July 8, starts to recede from northwest India around September 17, and concludes by October 15.
In recent years, the dates of onset have varied significantly. Last year, the monsoon arrived on May 30, while in 2023 it started on June 8, May 29 in 2022, June 3 in 2021, and June 1 in 2020. In 2019, the monsoon set in on June 8, and in 2018 it began on May 29.
An official from the IMD clarified that the timing of the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala does not directly determine the total rainfall expected across the country during the season.
“An early or delayed onset in Kerala does not necessarily imply the same for the rest of India. The monsoon system is shaped by extensive atmospheric dynamics and regional weather patterns,” the official remarked.
The IMD had previously predicted above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2025 southwest monsoon season, estimating rainfall to reach around 105% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm, with a margin of error of five percent.
This forecast also suggests a minimal impact from El Nino conditions, which typically decrease rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.
Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA is classified as normal. Below 90% is considered deficient, between 90% and 95% as below normal, 105% to 110% as above normal, and over 110% as excessive.
The monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture sector, supporting over 42% of the population and contributing 18.2% to the national GDP. It also plays an essential role in replenishing water reservoirs vital for drinking and hydroelectric power.
Point of View
I emphasize the importance of the monsoon for India's agriculture and economy. An early arrival can have profound implications, but we must also consider the broader climatic influences that shape our weather patterns. The IMD's predictions warrant close attention as they guide farmers and policymakers alike.
NationPress
16/06/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What date is the southwest monsoon expected to arrive in Kerala?
The southwest monsoon is predicted to arrive in Kerala by May 27.
How does the monsoon's arrival affect rainfall across India?
The timing of the monsoon's arrival in Kerala does not directly correlate with total rainfall expected across the country.
What is the significance of the monsoon for India?
The monsoon is crucial for agriculture, supporting over 42% of the population and contributing significantly to the national GDP.
How does the IMD predict the monsoon's onset?
The IMD announces the monsoon's onset based on specific meteorological conditions observed in the region.
What impact does El Nino have on monsoon rainfall?
El Nino conditions typically reduce rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, but their impact this season is expected to be minimal.
