Pakistan-based terror outfits have pivoted their strategy in Jammu and Kashmir, shifting from narratives around the abrogation of Article 370 to exploiting local socio-political grievances in order to incite public unrest and recruit youth, Indian security agencies have warned. A recent intelligence assessment flagged this shift as a growing threat to the region's stability.

Why the Strategy Shifted

Following the revocation of Article 370 in 2019, Pakistan-based terror organisations mounted an extensive campaign seeking to leverage the political fallout. However, with that narrative losing traction over time, these groups have recalibrated their approach. Security officials note that handlers are now zeroing in on local socio-economic fault lines — a more insidious and harder-to-counter form of radicalisation.

Pahari ST Status Used as a Recruitment Tool

The grant of Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the linguistic Pahari community in Jammu and Kashmir has reportedly been weaponised by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) handlers operating from Pakistan. The move has caused resentment among the Gujjar and Bakerwal nomadic communities, which have held ST status since 1991.

'The issue has led to significant social polarisation, with protests and street agitations being held in several areas. However, there has not been large-scale communal or physical violence regarding this issue,' an official said. Intelligence reports indicate the issue has become a flashpoint in the Pir Panjal region, with the Lashkar allegedly using it to recruit cadres and stoke violence.

Online Outreach and Manufactured Divide

An Intelligence Bureau (IB) official clarified that direct recruitment is not always the first objective. 'At first, the handlers are reaching out to people of the region through private chats and also on social media. Some of the communications openly advocate for widespread violence,' the official said.

Separately, officials noted that terror handlers are working to deepen a perceived divide between the Jammu and Kashmir regions. 'False narratives are being spread about how Jammu remains preferred over Kashmir,' one official said, adding that the aim is to amplify existing tensions until youth take to the streets.

Migrant Workers: The Most Exploited Issue

According to intelligence officials, the issue most consistently exploited by terror groups involves migrant workers, who are frequently accused of taking local employment. Groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Lashkar-e-Taiba, through their proxies, have circulated hit lists comprising the names of migrant workers in Jammu and Kashmir. Migrants have been killed on several occasions by operatives of these terror groups.

Security Outlook and What Comes Next

Officials acknowledge that the exploitation of socio-political fault lines presents a qualitatively different — and more complex — challenge than direct insurgency. 'There are some sticking points, no doubt, but terror handlers are amplifying them into a major problem with the hope that the youth take to the streets and indulge in acts of violence,' an official said.

Security agencies and the Government of India have so far managed to contain the situation. The elimination of separatist networks in the Valley is credited as a key factor in the relative peace of recent years. However, officials caution that sustained exploitation of genuine local grievances could, over time, create the conditions for renewed instability in the region.