Will Warming Climate Cause Dengue Cases to Increase by 76% Across Asia and the Americas by 2050?

New Delhi, Sep 10 (NationPress) A notable rise in global temperatures is projected to lead to a staggering 76 percent increase in dengue cases across numerous regions in Asia and the Americas by the year 2050, as revealed by a recent study.

This research, conducted by a group of scientists from the universities of Washington, Stanford, and the US National Bureau of Economic Research, serves as the first concrete evidence that a warming climate has already heightened the impact of this disease.

Lead author Marissa Childs, an Assistant Professor of environmental health at the University of Washington, stated, "The temperature effects were much more significant than I had anticipated."

"Even minor fluctuations in temperature can considerably influence dengue transmission, and we are witnessing the evidence of climate warming already," she elaborated.

The study reviewed over 1.4 million observations of local dengue cases from 21 nations in Central and South America, as well as Southeast and South Asia, capturing both epidemic surges and baseline infection levels.

Dengue flourishes in a “Goldilocks zone” of temperatures, with incidence peaking at approximately 27.8 degrees Celsius (82 degrees Fahrenheit). As temperatures in cooler areas rise, incidence increases sharply, but it slightly decreases when already-warm regions surpass this optimal temperature range.

Consequently, some of the most significant increases are anticipated in cooler, densely populated regions of countries like Mexico, Peru, and Brazil.

Many additional endemic areas will continue to bear a greater burden of dengue fueled by warming.

The findings, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, indicate that elevated temperatures due to climate change accounted for an average of 18 percent of dengue incidence across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas from 1995 to 2014, which translates to over 4.6 million additional infections each year based on current incidence rates.

By 2050, cases could surge by another 49 to 76 percent, depending on greenhouse gas emission levels, according to the study.

In scenarios at the higher end of projections, the incidence of dengue could more than double in many cooler areas, including regions in the study countries home to over 260 million people.

The study emphasizes that robust climate mitigation efforts could significantly alleviate the dengue disease burden. Alongside this, adaptation will be crucial, involving improved mosquito control, fortified health systems, and possibly widespread implementation of new dengue vaccines.