Is FII Selling Affecting the Rupee While Domestic Flows Bolster Equities?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- FIIs are selling off securities, impacting the rupee.
- Domestic investments are supporting equity markets.
- Rupee depreciation is higher than historical averages.
- BFSI and automobile sectors demonstrate significant growth.
- Trade deficits are improving, aiding external balance.
New Delhi, Dec 19 (NationPress) The steady selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) has put significant pressure on the Indian rupee during November, while domestic investments have buoyed equity markets and led to an increase in bond yields, as reported on Friday.
The analysis from JM Financial indicated that the rupee experienced a depreciation of approximately 6 percent in 2025, which is markedly higher than the historical average annual decline of around 3.5 percent, attributing this to FII outflows and uncertainties surrounding trade agreements with the US.
Furthermore, it emphasized the strong performance in sectors like Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI) as well as the automobile industry.
According to the report, BFSI indicators displayed stable credit growth within the system, an uptick in deposit growth, and a rise in insurance premiums, while flows into asset management remained fairly consistent.
In addition to BFSI, the automobile sector noted a broad-based growth in wholesales year-on-year, although infrastructure orders showed signs of moderation, metal prices and steel volumes saw a sequential decline, and port cargo volumes increased at a slower rate compared to the prior month.
India's external balance has seen improvement as the merchandise trade deficit adjusted to $24.5 billion in November, down from a significant $42 billion deficit in October.
The report also remarked that the services surplus continued to support India's external balance.
Meanwhile, the bond markets have seemingly reached a conclusion on the rate-cutting cycle, with yields increasing despite the RBI's open market operations and a 25 basis-point policy cut in December.
Year-on-year, bank credit growth remained consistent at 11.5 percent, while deposit growth reached 10.2 percent YoY. The Marginal Cost of Funds-based Lending Rate (MCLR) for private banks reduced to 9.4 percent, whereas public sector banks maintained a flat MCLR at 8.8 percent.
Additionally, the report highlighted that wholesales in the automobile sector surged by 22.2 percent year-on-year, with commercial vehicle sales climbing by 26.6 percent in November.
Notably, in December, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers during nine out of eleven trading days. A recent report from Bank of Baroda indicated that the rupee could experience continued volatility until a resolution with the US is reached, likely by March 2026.