A new report by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), headquartered in Washington, DC, has issued a stark warning that accepting official Chinese statistics at face value is a critical error — one that distorts global understanding of China's actual technological, economic, and military capabilities. The report, authored by James Lewis, a Distinguished Fellow at CEPA's Tech Policy Programme, was flagged in New Delhi on April 25.

China's Data Opacity: A Deliberate Strategy

Lewis argues that China is engaged in a long-running influence campaign designed to project an image of inevitable dominance across sectors. The report makes clear that while China is genuinely advancing in several areas, the scale of that progress is frequently exaggerated through carefully curated data.

China's government classifies far more information as state secrets than most other nations do. Economic statistics, in particular, are routinely massaged, suppressed, or selectively published to support a preferred national narrative. In extreme cases, China has even arrested journalists and researchers for disclosing data that would be considered freely available public information in most democracies.

Lewis writes that there are places where China is ahead, but fewer than a casual reading might suggest, urging analysts and policymakers to apply rigorous scrutiny before drawing conclusions from Chinese-sourced figures.

GDP Inflation and Debt Concealment

One of the most consequential areas of data manipulation, according to the report, involves GDP metrics and national debt levels. There is a persistent institutional pressure within China to inflate growth figures while simultaneously obscuring liabilities that would contradict the narrative of uninterrupted economic success.

Lewis points out that while published data may appear to show the United States carrying more public debt than China, this comparison is fundamentally flawed. He writes that this is the result of Chinese obfuscation, meaning China's true debt burden is deliberately hidden from international scrutiny, making direct comparisons unreliable.

Military Claims Under the Microscope

The report also scrutinises China's military technology claims, finding several to be significantly overstated. China's assertion that its radar systems could detect stealth aircraft, and that its J-20 fighter jet was a direct equivalent to the US F-35, is described as bogus by Lewis.

The report points to recent events in Venezuela and Iran — where Chinese-supplied military technology reportedly underperformed — as evidence that such claims were exaggerated. Additionally, the mysterious disappearance of the J-20's chief designer has raised further questions about the programme's actual status and credibility.

5G and Scientific Publications: Metrics That Mislead

The CEPA report also challenges how widely used benchmarks are interpreted. The volume of scientific citations and research publications from China is often cited as proof of academic dominance — but the report cautions that the metric of what is being counted must be examined against what it actually measures in real-world impact.

On 5G infrastructure, China has undoubtedly built more towers and coverage networks. However, when the metric shifts to actual consumer access to 5G services, the United States leads, according to the report. Similarly, China operates more high-speed rail lines, but the US maintains a significantly larger fleet of passenger aircraft — illustrating how raw numbers can paint an incomplete picture depending on what is being measured.

Why This Matters for India and the World

For India, which shares a contested border with China and competes with it across diplomatic, economic, and technological domains, the implications of this report are particularly significant. Policymakers who rely on inflated Chinese economic data or overestimated military capability assessments risk making strategic miscalculations.

This comes amid growing global calls for greater transparency in how nations report economic and technological benchmarks — a conversation in which China's opacity stands in sharp contrast to the disclosure standards of G7 nations. As geopolitical competition intensifies, the reliability of data from rival states will increasingly shape defence budgets, trade policy, and diplomatic alignments worldwide.

Analysts expect this report to fuel further debate within Western policy circles and multilateral institutions about establishing independent verification mechanisms for data published by non-transparent governments — a development that could reshape how international rankings and indices are constructed in the years ahead.