Are Dengue and Chikungunya Set to Become Endemic in Europe?

New Delhi, May 13 (NationPress) A recent study published in the Lancet Planetary Health journal indicates that the European Union is shifting from sporadic outbreaks of Aedes-borne dengue and chikungunya towards an endemic landscape. The primary culprits for these viruses are Aedes aegypti, known as the yellow fever mosquito, and Aedes albopictus, or the Asian tiger mosquito.

In 2024, there were 304 reported dengue cases in the European region, marking a historic high compared to a mere 275 cases over the previous 15 years.

This upward trend signifies the northward spread of tiger mosquitoes, which carry these viruses, largely attributed to global warming, according to researchers from Sweden and Germany.

The study highlights that the frequency and severity of outbreaks have surged since 2010, transitioning from primarily tropical regions, due to rising temperatures.

“Climatic variables emerged as the strongest predictors of outbreak risk, even after accounting for health-care expenditure and imported case numbers,” stated the research team, which includes experts from Umea University in Sweden and University of Heidelberg in Germany.

“Warmer summer temperatures significantly elevate outbreak risk, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, while human mobility further facilitates the spread of these two diseases,” they added.

The analysis covers the spread of these diseases in Europe over the last 35 years.

Data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control indicates that most outbreaks (95 percent) occurred between July and September of 2024, with 64 outbreaks recorded in the third quarter.

Urbanization, which offers new habitats for Aedes vectors, has greatly influenced outbreak risk, with urban and semi-urban locales exhibiting a higher hazard ratio for outbreaks compared to rural areas.

“Our findings emphasize that the EU is moving from sporadic outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases towards an endemic situation. The gap between vector establishment and local outbreaks has significantly shortened over the past three decades and is projected to decrease further,” the researchers concluded.

The study calls for urgent and robust public health measures, including stringent vector control, improved entomological and disease surveillance, citizen science, and early warning systems.

“In the face of a warming climate, preventing the shift to endemicity will necessitate proactive, vigilant, and targeted public health interventions,” the team remarked.