Will Domestic Air Passenger Traffic Increase by 4-6% in FY26? October Sees 142.8 Lakh Travellers
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Synopsis
In October, domestic air passenger traffic reached 142.8 lakh, showing a 4.5% YoY growth and a 12.9% increase from September. ICRA predicts a steady growth of 4-6% for FY26. However, challenges like rising ATF prices and geopolitical tensions could moderate this growth. Discover the trends shaping India's aviation future.
Key Takeaways
- Domestic air passenger traffic in October reached 142.8 lakh.
- Year-on-year growth of 4.5% and sequential growth of 12.9% from September.
- ICRA forecasts a 4-6% growth in domestic traffic for FY26.
- Operational efficiency improved with a PLF of 84.7%.
- Challenges include geopolitical tensions and rising ATF prices.
New Delhi, Nov 18 (NationPress) The estimated domestic air passenger traffic for October stands at 142.8 lakh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5 percent and a significant sequential increase of 12.9 percent from September, according to a report released on Tuesday.
ICRA has a ‘Stable’ outlook for the Indian aviation industry, forecasting a 4-6 percent growth in domestic passenger traffic for FY26. This follows a 7.6 percent increase in FY2025, where total passenger volumes hit 1,653.8 lakh.
The surge in travel demand has been bolstered by an increase in capacity, with domestic departures reaching around 99,816 in October, marking a 10.8 percent sequential rise and a 1.7 percent year-on-year growth, as per the report.
Operational efficiency has also seen improvements, with the industry's Passenger Load Factor (PLF) estimated at 84.7 percent, surpassing 82.4 percent in October 2024 and 81.4 percent in September 2025.
Despite this positive trend, growth prospects for the current fiscal are anticipated to be moderate due to factors such as cross-border tensions, global disruptions, travel hesitancy following the June 2025 aircraft tragedy, and recent issues related to Air Traffic Control (ATC) operations, the report indicated.
On the international front, Indian carriers transported 28.3 lakh passengers in September 2025, reflecting a 5.8 percent year-on-year increase.
ICRA projects international passenger traffic for Indian airlines to grow between 13-15 percent in FY26, driven by enhanced international routes and greater aircraft availability.
Meanwhile, the rising prices of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) continue to pose challenges for airline cost structures.
In November, ATF prices rose by 4.4 percent year-on-year and 0.8 percent sequentially from October. With fuel costs accounting for 30-40 percent of airlines’ operating expenses, ongoing price increases remain a significant concern for the industry, the report noted.
To improve passenger convenience, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has proposed new regulations permitting ticket cancellations or modifications within 48 hours of booking without penalties, applicable for flights departing more than five days later for domestic routes and over fifteen days for international travel.
Refunds must be processed within 21 working days, ensuring faster resolution for passengers.
Point of View
I can affirm that India's aviation sector is poised for growth despite facing challenges. The increase in domestic passenger traffic indicates a resilient demand for air travel. While external factors may temper this growth, the industry's capacity expansion and improved operational efficiency reflect a positive trajectory for the future.
NationPress
18/11/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the growth percentage of domestic air passenger traffic for October?
Domestic air passenger traffic for October is estimated at 142.8 lakh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5%.
What does ICRA forecast for domestic passenger traffic growth in FY26?
ICRA projects domestic passenger traffic to grow by 4-6% in FY26.
What factors are affecting the growth of the aviation sector?
Growth is being affected by cross-border tensions, global disruptions, and rising ATF prices.
How many passengers did Indian carriers transport internationally in September 2025?
Indian carriers transported 28.3 lakh passengers internationally in September 2025, a 5.8% year-on-year increase.
What are the new guidelines proposed by the DGCA regarding ticket cancellations?
The DGCA proposed guidelines allowing ticket cancellations or amendments within 48 hours without penalties for flights departing more than five days later.
