FairPoint: Time for the Opposition to Carve Its Own Path Without Congress
Click to start listening
New Delhi, Dec 1 (NationPress) Is it the opportune moment for the opposition minus Congress to forge its distinct identity? This inquiry may appear overstated, yet the pressing truth is that the remaining factions of the opposition must emerge from the shadow of Congress.
Throughout the majority of India's post-independence journey, the Congress party has held the reins of governance. Even in times when it was out of power, it often dominated the opposition landscape, with only a brief interruption during the Janata Party era.
At the national level, the opposition has predominantly revolved around Congress. Frequently, the grand old party’s position on various issues is perceived as the stance of the entire opposition. Over the past decade, Congress has primarily focused on attacking the Prime Minister both personally and politically, repeatedly linking him and the BJP to business magnates. Consequently, the rest of the opposition is often seen as merely following Congress' lead, their voices drowned out by the Congress clamor.
This is where other opposition parties need to draw their line; they must assert their own identity.
Ultimately, electoral success is the cornerstone of politics. The grand old party has significantly lagged behind, while other opposition factions have performed relatively better across various elections, be it central, state, or local. In contrast, Congress has been losing its electoral relevance, particularly in regions where it once had substantial influence.
Consider the recent Maharashtra Assembly elections. An analysis indicates that the INDIA Bloc faced defeat more because of Congress than its smaller allies, such as Uddhav Thackeray’s SS(UBT) and Sharad Pawar's NCP(SP).
The anticipated contest between Mahayuti and MVA morphed into a direct competition between BJP and Congress. These two parties faced off in at least 75 constituencies, where BJP triumphed in 65. Congress failed to secure even second place in at least six constituencies. While Congress' allies SS(UBT) and NCP(SP) managed to achieve respectable vote shares in seats contested directly against the BJP, records from the Election Commission of India (ECI) reveal that Congress lagged behind BJP by an astounding 14 percent in vote share.
Moreover, BJP achieved a remarkable strike rate of around 89 percent, winning 132 out of 149 seats contested in the 288-member Assembly, whereas Congress only managed 25 percent. The strike rate for BJP’s allies, including SS and NCP, hovered around 70 percent.
Both Shiv Sena and NCP increased their seat counts in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections compared to 2019.
In 2019, the ‘undivided’ Sena clinched 56 seats, while the factions together won 77 (SS - 57 and SS(UBT) - 20), and NCP secured 54, which decreased to 51 (NCP(SP) and NCP combined) in 2024. In stark contrast, Congress plummeted from 44 seats in 2019 to just 16 in 2024.
Maharashtra should serve as a crucial case study for the remainder of the opposition. The Assembly elections in Haryana and prior polls in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan should also be scrutinized. The analysis of the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections should serve as a lesson for the entire opposition.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress achieved 99 seats, demonstrating an improvement over its previous two performances, primarily in regions where it relied on stronger regional allies to counter BJP’s dominance.
Its victories were not predominantly due to its own performance but largely attributed to the influence of regional partners. For example, in the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav significantly boosted the INDIA bloc's performance, benefiting Congress as well. The Samajwadi Party raised its seat count to 37 from five, with its vote share increasing from 18.11 percent to 33.59 percent. Congress' vote share rose by over three percent, reaching 9.46 percent with six seats compared to one previously.
While the Samajwadi Party aided Congress in Uttar Pradesh, the political landscape was dismal for Congress in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, where it failed to accommodate Akhilesh Yadav’s party.
In the bypolls, Congress performed poorly compared to its INDIA Bloc allies, with Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party achieving better results. The only silver lining for Congress was winning all three seats in Karnataka and retaining one in Madhya Pradesh. However, its performance in Rajasthan, Assam, Punjab, and Gujarat was disappointing.
In the Jharkhand Assembly polls, which the INDIA Bloc has celebrated, the reality is that the victory was primarily secured by the strong performance of Hemant Soren-led JMM, not Congress.
Even in the South, the DMK has gained momentum and sidelined Congress, despite being its ally in the INDIA Bloc.
The rest of the opposition is continuously receiving signals from the electorate. They simply need to make decisive choices and define their direction. The opposition can indeed exist without Congress, but it requires a unified agenda and solidarity—two critical challenges faced by the opposition, whether aligned with or apart from Congress.
(Deepika Bhan can be contacted at deepika.b@ians.in)
