India is projected to overtake China in its share of global GDP measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms by around 2060, according to a report by the World Inequality Lab (WIL), based at the Paris School of Economics (PSE). The finding underscores a long-run structural shift in the balance of global economic weight, driven largely by demographic divergence between the two Asian giants.

China's Declining Share

China's contribution to global GDP currently stands at approximately 20% in PPP terms and is expected to remain large through the 2030s. However, the country's rapidly shrinking population is projected to weigh heavily on its long-run economic performance. According to the WIL report, China's population share has already fallen sharply — from 23% of the world's population in 1945 to about 17% in 2025 — and is forecast to drop below 8% by 2100. This demographic contraction, the report argues, will increasingly drag on China's global GDP share in the second half of the century.

India's Rising Trajectory

As China decelerates demographically, India's relatively younger and growing population positions it to absorb a larger slice of global output. The WIL report projects that India will surpass China in PPP-based global GDP share around 2060 — a milestone that would mark a historic reordering of Asian economic dominance. Purchasing power parity measures the total volume of goods and services a single unit of currency can purchase across countries, making it a widely used benchmark for cross-country economic comparisons.

A Multipolar World, Not a New Hegemon

The report cautions against reading India's projected rise as the emergence of a new global hegemon. It notes that the world is likely to remain multipolar through the 21st century, with no single economy replicating the dominance the United States held around 1950, when it commanded 35–40% of world GDP. Europe held a similarly outsized position around 1900–1910, accounting for roughly 40–45% of global output — a concentration that is structurally unlikely to recur.

Where India Stands Today

In nominal terms, India has not yet closed the gap with the world's largest economies. The latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report projects India's GDP at approximately $4.15 trillion in 2026, up from $3.92 trillion in 2025. By comparison, the United Kingdom's GDP is forecast at $4.27 trillion in 2026, keeping it marginally ahead in nominal terms. The US leads at $32.38 trillion, while China remains the world's second-largest economy at $20.85 trillion.

What This Means Going Forward

The WIL projections reinforce a broader consensus that India's economic ascent is a matter of when, not if — but the timeline is measured in decades, not years. The country's ability to capitalise on its demographic dividend through sustained investment in productivity, education, and institutional quality will be decisive. Analysts note that PPP-based rankings, while useful for welfare comparisons, can diverge significantly from nominal GDP rankings, and both metrics will matter as India seeks a larger voice in global economic governance.