The Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) has forged an operational alliance with Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), with the combined outfit now plotting to engineer mass civil unrest simultaneously across multiple Indian states, according to intelligence officials. The development, flagged on 24 August, signals a significant shift in Pakistan-backed terror strategy — moving beyond targeted strikes toward destabilising India's social fabric from within.

How the Alliance Is Structured

According to an Intelligence Bureau (IB) official, busted terror modules have revealed a clear convergence of JeM and AQIS ideology. Under the arrangement, JeM is rebuilding its operational capabilities in Jammu and Kashmir while AQIS expands its cell network across North Indian states, spreading radical ideology and identifying recruits. Separately, the Lashkar-e-Tayiba (LeT) is reportedly working alongside the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in a parallel track — a deliberate strategy, officials say, orchestrated by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to maximise pressure on India across all fronts.

The Mass Unrest Blueprint

Officials describe the unrest plan as more dangerous than conventional terror strikes. Operatives embedded within civilian populations are tasked with identifying individuals susceptible to radicalisation, then building micro-cells of no more than two to three persons. These cells are not designed to carry out bombings or targeted killings. Instead, their mandate is to instigate public disturbances and deepen social divisions — incidents that, if executed simultaneously across major states, would severely strain India's security apparatus.

'The individuals that have been picked up by these terror groups are told to move around normally in a society and identify persons who would be willing to execute the plan,' an official said. 'There are no files on these people and hence tracking them is a challenging task.'

Officials drew a parallel with Europe, where radicalised individuals have been known to incite public protests and incidents of violence without any prior criminal record.

J&K Strategy: Targeted Killings and Fedayeen Strikes

In Jammu and Kashmir, the JeM-AQIS axis is simultaneously pursuing a more conventional terror strategy — reaching out to local contacts to facilitate targeted killings of non-local residents and Kashmiri Pandits. For larger operations, JeM and LeT are reportedly attempting joint infiltrations, deploying a 'jungle strategy' in which infiltrators remain concealed in forest cover until they receive orders to strike. Officials noted this was the same method used in the lead-up to the Pahalgam attack.

Bangladesh and the North-East Angle

The threat is not confined to India's northern borders. Officials indicated that AQIS maintains a substantial base and network in Bangladesh, and JeM and AQIS are jointly targeting West Bengal and states in North-East India using a similar strategy. This cross-border dimension adds a layer of complexity to India's counter-terror response, given the porous nature of the eastern frontier.

What Comes Next

The resurgence is notable given that JeM had been relatively dormant in the immediate aftermath of Operation Sindoor. Over recent months, however, the outfit has steadily rebuilt its infrastructure and intensified recruitment. Security agencies are now tracking the dispersed cell network, though officials acknowledge that the decentralised, low-profile nature of the operatives makes detection exceptionally difficult. A coordinated, multi-state response framework is expected to be a priority for central agencies in the weeks ahead.