Washington, Feb 11 (NationPress) The National Security Strategy (NSS) from the administration of US President Donald Trump acts as a significant alert for Southeast Asia, indicating that the US may no longer function as a counterbalance to China’s growing assertiveness in the region. A report suggests that the period of US security assurances for parts of the region may conclude sooner than expected.

As reported by Eurasia Review, the evolving environment is shifting towards a more unpredictable, competitive, and fragmented landscape, necessitating that Southeast Asian nations reinvigorate ASEAN-led regional institutions and expand their strategic alliances with regional powers.

With the Philippines set to assume the role of ASEAN Chair in 2026, it is evident that the disputes in the South China Sea and maritime security will be central to the Philippines' agenda for ASEAN 2026. An ideal scenario for the Philippines would involve a revised and reinforced code of conduct concerning the South China Sea, although recent developments have reduced the likelihood of this, especially in light of the Trump administration’s anticipated 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), released in December 2025. This document signifies a profound change from liberal internationalist principles to a more transactional, interest-based, America-first approach to foreign policy.

“It appears that the US is no longer focused on containing China and is willing to accept the 'outsized influence of larger, richer, and stronger nations' as a constant in international relations,” the report noted. In essence, China and Russia are not regarded as competitors or threats to the rules-based international order, and both nations may pursue their own spheres of influence. Trump’s actions in Venezuela and his remarks about acquiring Greenland from Denmark have seemingly empowered China and Russia to carve out their own versions of the Monroe Doctrine in their respective areas.

The report highlighted that as Washington intensifies its concentration on its immediate hemisphere, Southeast Asian countries might encounter strategic unpredictability, particularly as many have historically relied on the US to counterbalance China’s expanding influence and to maintain regional stability. However, this shift in US focus, as reflected in the NSS, may compel Southeast Asia's political and economic elites to reevaluate their strategies amid changing great-power dynamics.

“While a document like the NSS cannot definitively steer Trump’s often capricious foreign policy, it is evident that Southeast Asia has been less of a priority for him. In the absence of a clearly articulated US strategy for Southeast Asia, the region must adapt. The challenge for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries will be to strengthen their own institutions, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ADMM+, and EAS, while fostering deeper intra-regional trust and cooperation concerning China,” concluded the report.