6G could add $1.24 trillion to global economy by 2040, spectrum gap risks $520 billion
Synopsis
The GSMA has put a number on what poor spectrum policy could cost the world: $520 billion, nearly half of 6G's projected $1.24 trillion economic contribution by 2040. With the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 set to determine spectrum allocations, the next few years of regulatory decisions will effectively write the ceiling on 6G's global economic payoff.
Key Takeaways
6G could contribute $1.24 trillion to the global economy by 2040 , equal to 0.7 per cent of global GDP , according to the GSMA .
Inadequate spectrum allocation could put $520 billion — or 42 per cent — of that projected value at risk.
Manufacturing (20%) and financial services (19%) are forecast to be the biggest sectoral beneficiaries of 6G.
Mid-band spectrum is expected to account for approximately 70 per cent of 6G's economic contribution.
The GSMA is calling on governments to release at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum by around 2030 .
Key spectrum decisions are expected at the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 .
Sixth-generation mobile technology, or 6G, could contribute an additional $1.24 trillion to the global economy by 2040, equivalent to 0.7 per cent of global GDP, according to a new report by the GSMA, the global mobile industry body. However, the same report warns that poor spectrum policy decisions could wipe out nearly half that potential — up to $520 billion — before 6G ever reaches full deployment.
The Economic Opportunity at Stake
The GSMA report projects that 6G's economic gains will flow primarily through advances in artificial intelligence, industrial automation, immersive digital services, and next-generation connectivity. Manufacturing and financial services are forecast to be the largest beneficiaries, accounting for 20 per cent and 19 per cent of the projected economic contribution, respectively. Construction is expected to follow at 13 per cent, while the information and communications technology (ICT) sector is projected to account for 12 per cent.
The Spectrum Warning
The report's central caution is stark: as much as $520 billion, or 42 per cent of 6G's projected economic value, could be forfeited if governments fail to allocate sufficient spectrum in time to support large-scale deployment. GSMA Chief Regulatory Officer John Giusti was direct in his assessment. 'Decisions on spectrum policy taken over the next few years would play a critical role in determining how much of that value can ultimately be realised,' he said. The report identified mid-band spectrum as the most consequential, expected to account for roughly 70 per cent of 6G's total economic contribution. Low-band spectrum is projected to add a further 25 per cent, primarily by extending coverage to rural, indoor, and underserved areas.
What 6G Will Look Like
Unlike its predecessors, 6G is being designed around artificial intelligence capabilities from the ground up, enabling networks to support intelligent decision-making, integrated sensing functions, and seamless connectivity across both terrestrial and satellite infrastructure. The GSMA identified AI-driven connectivity, industrial robotics, advanced broadband services, integrated sensing technologies, and non-terrestrial networks as the key drivers of future economic gains. This architectural shift distinguishes 6G fundamentally from prior mobile generations, which layered intelligence on top of existing connectivity frameworks.
What Governments Are Being Asked to Do
To unlock the full economic value of 6G, the GSMA has called on governments to release at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum by around 2030, including portions of the upper 6 GHz range. It has also urged regulators to make the 600 MHz band available to improve coverage and support connected devices in remote and underserved locations. Critically, the industry body pressed governments to establish clear national spectrum roadmaps to provide investment certainty for operators planning long-horizon network rollouts.
The Road to 2027
The report's release is timed to build momentum ahead of the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027, where policymakers from across the globe are expected to determine future spectrum allocations for emerging technologies. The conference represents a pivotal fork in the road — the decisions made there will likely set the trajectory for 6G deployment through the 2030s and directly determine how much of the projected $1.24 trillion materialises. This comes amid intensifying competition between major economies, including the United States, China, the European Union, and India, to secure spectrum positions and establish early 6G leadership.
Point of View
And anchoring the conversation with a large headline number is a proven strategy. The more telling figure is the $520 billion at risk: it frames inaction as a fiscal loss rather than a neutral status quo, which is a more effective policy argument. What the report does not address is the distributional question — which economies capture that $1.24 trillion, and whether developing nations, including India, have the regulatory capacity to compete for mid-band spectrum at the 2027 conference. India's own 6G ambitions, backed by government-funded research programmes, make spectrum positioning at the WRC a live national interest issue, not just a telecom industry preference.
NationPress
5 Nov 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
How much could 6G add to the global economy by 2040?
According to a GSMA report, 6G could contribute an additional $1.24 trillion to the global economy by 2040, equivalent to 0.7 per cent of global GDP. This growth is projected to come from advances in artificial intelligence, industrial automation, immersive digital services, and next-generation connectivity.
What is the risk to 6G's economic potential from spectrum shortages?
The GSMA warns that up to $520 billion — roughly 42 per cent of 6G's total projected economic value — could be lost if governments fail to allocate sufficient spectrum to support large-scale deployment. The report identifies mid-band spectrum as the most critical, expected to account for about 70 per cent of 6G's economic contribution.
Which sectors will benefit most from 6G?
Manufacturing and financial services are projected to be the biggest beneficiaries, accounting for 20 per cent and 19 per cent of 6G's economic contribution respectively. Construction (13%) and the ICT sector (12%) are also expected to gain significantly.
What is the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027 and why does it matter for 6G?
The World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 is an international forum where governments and regulators are expected to determine spectrum allocations for emerging technologies including 6G. The decisions made there will set the framework for large-scale 6G deployment and directly influence how much of the projected $1.24 trillion in economic value is ultimately realised.
What is the GSMA asking governments to do on spectrum?
The GSMA is urging governments to release at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum by around 2030, including portions of the upper 6 GHz range, and to make the 600 MHz band available for coverage expansion. It is also calling for clear national spectrum roadmaps to give telecom operators investment certainty for future network rollouts.
