Brent crude hits $110 a barrel as West Asia supply fears mount
Synopsis
Brent crude crossed $110 a barrel for the first time since May, driven by Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and US legislative drama over a Moscow diesel deal. Goldman Sachs has already raised its December 2026 forecast to $90 — but with Trump declining to rule out military action against Iran and the Strait of Hormuz still fragile, the bigger question is whether $110 is a ceiling or a floor.
Key Takeaways
Brent crude hit $110 a barrel on 17 October 2026 — its highest since May — settling at $109.69 , up 3.56% .
Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia and attacks on Russia's Ryazan refinery tightened the supply outlook.
US lawmakers introduced a bill to block a proposed deal to buy several hundred million barrels of diesel from Russian reserves.
US President Donald Trump reportedly declined to rule out using the 'Mother of All Bombs' against Iran after the 3 November election.
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $90 a barrel , up 6% from its prior estimate of $85 , citing a risk premium of just over $20 .
Brent has surged from around $70 at the war's outbreak to above $125 at its peak, with the Strait of Hormuz — handling nearly 20% of global oil shipments — remaining a key flashpoint.
Brent crude surged to $110 a barrel on 17 October 2026 for the first time since May, as dwindling hopes of near-term supply relief pushed traders to increase bets on further price gains. The benchmark settled at $109.69, up 3.56% from the previous close, capping a session that saw it climb 3.7% as renewed conflict across major oil-exporting regions tightened an already fragile supply outlook.
Conflict Flashpoints Squeezing Supply
Iran-backed Houthi rebels continued missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, clouding the production outlook in the Gulf. Simultaneously, Russia and Ukraine exchanged strikes on each other's energy infrastructure, with reports of a strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery leading to a suspension of operations there. The dual-front pressure on oil infrastructure left traders with little confidence that supply disruptions would ease in the short term.
US Legislation and Trump's Iran Warning
On the legislative front, US lawmakers on Friday introduced a bill to block a proposed deal with Moscow to purchase several hundred million barrels of diesel from Russian reserves. Lawmakers expressed opposition to the move, arguing it could bolster Moscow's war finances. Adding to market anxiety, US President Donald Trump reportedly declined to rule out deploying the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb — commonly known as the 'Mother of All Bombs' — against Iran after the 3 November election, according to a report by Newsmax.
Goldman Sachs Raises December Forecast
A report by Goldman Sachs revised its December 2026 Brent crude price forecast upward to $90 a barrel, a 6% increase from its earlier projection of $85. The bank attributed the revision to 'ongoing downside risks to supply likely to slow the moderation in the time spreads risk premium,' which it estimated at just over $20 at current levels. The forecast hike underscores how deeply the West Asia conflict has been repriced into oil's forward curve.
How the War Has Reshaped Oil Prices
When the West Asia war broke out at the end of February, Brent was trading near $70 a barrel. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for nearly 20% of the world's oil shipments — drove prices above $125 a barrel. A gradual reopening of the strait allowed crude to moderate toward pre-war levels before the latest escalation pushed it back toward the $110 mark. The current rally reflects a market that has repeatedly underestimated the durability of the conflict's impact on supply chains.
What to Watch Next
Traders and analysts will closely monitor any developments around the Strait of Hormuz, US congressional action on the Russia diesel bill, and any post-election signals from the Trump administration on Iran. A sustained breach of $110 would intensify pressure on import-dependent economies, including India, where elevated crude prices feed directly into fuel costs, the current account deficit, and inflation.
Point of View
The Ryazan refinery strike, and the US Russia-diesel bill are not separate stories but reinforcing legs of the same supply squeeze. For India — which imports over 85% of its crude — every $10 move in Brent adds roughly ₹12,000 crore annually to the import bill. The political question is not whether fuel prices will rise, but when the Centre will absorb the shock versus pass it on.
NationPress
17 Oct 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Brent crude hit $110 a barrel on 17 October 2026?
Brent crude reached $110 a barrel on 17 October 2026 as hopes for near-term supply relief faded amid continued Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, attacks on Russia's Ryazan refinery, and fresh US legislative moves to block a Russia diesel deal. The combined pressure tightened an already fragile global supply outlook and lifted the benchmark 3.56% in a single session.
What is Goldman Sachs's updated forecast for Brent crude?
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent crude price forecast to $90 a barrel, up 6% from its earlier projection of $85, citing ongoing supply-side risks from the West Asia conflict. The bank estimated the current risk premium in oil's time spreads at just over $20.
How has the West Asia war affected oil prices since it began?
When the conflict began at the end of February, Brent crude was near $70 a barrel. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a transit point for roughly 20% of global oil shipments — pushed prices above $125 before a partial reopening allowed some moderation, with prices climbing back toward $110 on renewed escalation.
What did US President Trump say about Iran that rattled oil markets?
According to a Newsmax report, US President Donald Trump declined to rule out using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb, known as the 'Mother of All Bombs,' against Iran after the 3 November election. The remark added a fresh geopolitical risk premium to crude prices.
How does the Brent crude surge affect India?
India imports over 85% of its crude oil requirements, making it highly sensitive to global price swings. A sustained Brent price above $110 would widen India's current account deficit, add pressure on the rupee, and could feed into domestic fuel and inflation trends, depending on whether the government adjusts retail prices.
