Global crude oil prices could surge to as high as $150 per barrel if hostilities between the US and Iran resume in full force, according to an analysis by Rystad Energy, the Oslo-headquartered energy research and intelligence firm. The warning comes as the April ceasefire faces what analysts describe as its most precarious moment since it was brokered.

Scale of the Supply Disruption

According to the Rystad Energy report, as much as 11.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production remains shut in across six Gulf producers, making the current conflict the most significant supply disruption in modern energy market history. The disruption has already erased approximately 1 billion barrels of cumulative crude supply from global markets in the three months since hostilities first broke out — a volume equivalent to nearly two-and-a-half times the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Oil Prices Already on the Move

The market impact has been immediate. International benchmark Brent crude rose sharply to around $94.5 per barrel before easing back towards $93 per barrel, according to the report. On Thursday, Brent traded more than 2 per cent higher at around $95 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped 4 per cent to $93.64 per barrel. The escalation has also triggered a decline in financial markets, including US equities.

What Rystad Energy Said

Jorge Leon, Senior Vice President and Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, said the immediate impact of the disruption could be partially moderated by record releases from strategic petroleum reserves, lower crude imports by China, and the continued movement of around 5 million bpd of crude through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu export route, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

'At this stage, it is too early to say whether the current escalation marks a full resumption of hostilities or a dangerous but still containable episode,' Leon said. He added: 'The direction of travel is now more uncertain, and the next few days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can reassert itself or whether the conflict moves into a more sustained escalation cycle.'

Diplomatic Prospects Dim

The probability of a near-term diplomatic agreement has diminished from Rystad Energy's earlier assessment of around 40 per cent a few weeks ago, the report noted. As a result, oil price volatility is expected to remain elevated until there is clearer evidence that the ceasefire can hold or that diplomatic efforts regain momentum. This comes amid broader anxiety in global energy markets already strained by years of underinvestment and post-pandemic demand recovery.

What Happens Next

Energy analysts are closely watching the next few days for signals on whether back-channel diplomacy between Washington and Tehran can prevent a full-scale resumption of conflict. A sustained escalation, particularly one that disrupts flows through the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil supply passes — could rapidly push prices toward the $150 per barrel threshold flagged by Rystad. For India, one of the world's largest crude importers, a sustained price spike at that level would significantly widen the current account deficit and add pressure on the rupee.