Could Copper Prices Rise by 40% Globally in FY26?
Synopsis
Global copper prices have seen a significant surge of nearly 40% in FY26, driven by supply disruptions and tariff uncertainties. As forecasts suggest prices could stabilize between $11,000 and $12,000 per tonne in H1 FY27, the market faces potential risks. What does this mean for demand and India's consumption growth in the coming years?
Key Takeaways
Copper prices have surged by 40% in FY26.
Current prices are around $13,000 per tonne.
Forecast for H1 FY27: $11,000–$12,000 per tonne.
Supply growth lags behind demand, leading to market deficits.
India's consumption expected to grow 10-12% annually.
Mumbai, Feb 6 (NationPress) Global copper prices have escalated by nearly 40% this fiscal year (FY26), reaching approximately $13,000 per tonne by January 2026. This surge is attributed to ongoing mine-side supply disruptions, diminishing ore grades, and inventory imbalances across various exchanges, as reported on Friday.
The ratings agency ICRA noted that tight supply conditions, particularly outside the United States, coupled with tariff uncertainties, are likely to maintain prices within the range of $11,000 to $12,000 per tonne during the first half of FY27.
Nonetheless, the agency cautioned that there are potential downside risks for copper prices in FY27.
The copper market is expected to remain in deficit through calendar years 2025 and 2026, as supply growth continues to lag behind demand, thus supporting higher prices, according to forecasts.
Concerns regarding tariffs in the US and the potential for renewed trade actions have led to significant inventory build-ups at COMEX, while drawdowns have occurred at the London Metal Exchange (LME), resulting in tighter availability outside the US.
The report highlighted that stocks in COMEX-registered warehouses surged to around 498 kilo tonnes (kt) by December 2025, rising from approximately 98 kt in January 2025. This increase reflects a front-loading of refined copper imports into the US ahead of possible tariff actions under review in June 2026.
Additionally, ongoing mine supply disruptions have fueled the recent price rally.
High copper prices are anticipated to bring about near-term demand moderation risks, especially in price-sensitive end-use segments.
Declining physical premiums in China suggest a growing demand sensitivity to elevated price levels, indicating potential risks of demand deferral or substitution in the near future, as predicted by the agency.
India's domestic copper consumption is projected to grow by 10-12% annually over the next two years, although this growth rate may slow from the 14-15% percent seen in the first seven months of FY26.
In the medium term, the demand for copper in India is expected to be increasingly influenced by energy-transition-related applications, including renewable energy, power grids, data centers, and electric vehicles.
ICRA anticipates that upstream copper entities will likely benefit from stable prices, enhancing operating profitability, while downstream smelting and refining entities may experience margin pressure.
Point of View
It is essential to recognize the complexities surrounding copper pricing in the current fiscal year. The significant price hike, driven by supply disruptions and tariff uncertainties, presents both opportunities and challenges. As we continue to monitor these developments, the focus remains on how they will influence domestic consumption and the broader energy transition.
NationPress
10 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why have copper prices increased so much?
Copper prices have risen due to ongoing supply disruptions, declining ore grades, and inventory imbalances in the market. These factors create a tighter supply condition and increase prices.
What is the forecast for copper prices in H1 FY27?
The forecast suggests that copper prices will stabilize between $11,000 and $12,000 per tonne during the first half of FY27.
How will this affect India's copper consumption?
India's copper consumption is expected to grow by 10-12% annually over the next two years, driven largely by energy-transition applications.
What risks do high copper prices pose?
Elevated copper prices may lead to demand moderation in sensitive sectors, affecting overall consumption patterns.
What role do tariffs play in copper pricing?
Tariff uncertainties in the US have led to increased inventory at COMEX and drawdowns at LME, contributing to the tight supply situation and influencing copper prices.
