Will the Global Airline Industry's Revenue Exceed $1 Trillion by 2026?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- Global airline revenues are forecasted to reach $1.053 trillion in 2026.
- Return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to remain at 6.8 percent.
- Projected net profit for airlines in 2026 is $41 billion.
- Passenger numbers are anticipated to grow to 5.2 billion.
- Operating profit is expected to increase to $72.8 billion.
New Delhi, Dec 9 (NationPress) The global airline sector's total revenues are projected to achieve $1.053 trillion by 2026, marking a 4.5 percent increase from the anticipated $1.008 trillion in 2025, as reported by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Tuesday.
In addition, the return on invested capital (ROIC) is forecasted to remain at 6.8 percent, unchanged from 2025.
“Despite improvements in operating profitability and reduced leverage, ROIC is still expected to fall short of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), estimated to be 8.2 percent in 2026,” stated IATA.
The organization also indicated that airlines' total net profit is set to rise to $41 billion, an improvement from $39.5 billion in 2025. While profit figures are anticipated to reach new heights, the net profit margin is expected to remain stable at 3.9 percent compared to the current year.
Net profit per passenger is estimated to decrease to $7.90, down from the $8.50 peak noted in 2023.
At the same time, operating profit within the sector is projected to reach $72.8 billion, reflecting an increase of over 8 percent from $67.0 billion in 2025, resulting in a net operating margin of 6.9 percent—an improvement from the 6.6 percent expected for 2025.
The number of passengers is also projected to grow by 4.4 percent, reaching 5.2 billion in 2026. According to the global air transport organization, load factors are expected to continue breaking records, with airlines' seat accuracy anticipated to be 83.8 percent next year (2026).
Cargo volumes are expected to increase to 71.6 million tonnes, a 2.4 percent rise compared to 2025.
“Airlines are projected to achieve a 3.9 percent net margin and a $41 billion profit in 2026. This is encouraging news given the challenges the industry faces, including rising costs due to aerospace supply chain bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions, sluggish global trade, and increasing regulatory demands,” commented Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Additionally, IATA reported that deliveries of new aircraft began to increase in late 2025, with production expected to ramp up next year.
“Demand is expected to exceed the availability of aircraft and engines. The normalization of the structural mismatch between airline needs and production capacity is unlikely to occur before 2031-2034, due to significant delivery losses over the past five years and a record-high backlog of orders,” emphasized IATA.