India merchandise exports rise 15.5% in June to $40.4 billion: Crisil
Synopsis
India's export engine kept running in June at 15.5% growth, but the real story is what nearly halved — petroleum shipments collapsed from $8.4 billion to $4.9 billion as Brent crude corrected post a peace deal. With imports surging 31% and Crisil now flagging a CAD widening to 1.5% of GDP by FY27, the external account is becoming a pressure point India cannot ignore.
Key Takeaways
India's merchandise exports grew 15.5 per cent year-on-year to $40.4 billion in June 2025 , easing from 18 per cent in May.
Petroleum exports nearly halved, falling to $4.9 billion from $8.4 billion in May after Brent crude dropped to an average of $85.4 a barrel .
Other cereals exports surged 244.2 per cent ; meat, dairy and poultry rose 54.6 per cent ; gems and jewellery climbed 34.6 per cent .
Merchandise imports surged 31 per cent to $70.8 billion , driven by oil, gold, and core imports.
Crisil Ratings projects India's current account deficit to widen to 1.5 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2027 from 0.6 per cent in fiscal 2026.
Geopolitical risks in West Asia flagged as a key uncertainty that could push crude prices beyond Crisil's $82–87 a barrel forecast.
India's merchandise export growth held firm at 15.5 per cent year-on-year in June 2025, reaching $40.4 billion, even as the pace eased from the previous month, according to a report by Crisil Ratings released on Friday, 17 July. A steep drop in petroleum shipments was the primary drag, widening the goods trade deficit despite broad-based strength across agricultural and core export categories.
Agricultural Exports Lead the Charge
Farm shipments were a standout performer in June, benefiting from a favourable base effect. Rice exports climbed 16.5 per cent on-year, while meat, dairy, and poultry surged 54.6 per cent and marine products rose 14.5 per cent. The fast-growing other cereals category posted a striking 244.2 per cent jump, signalling strong global demand for Indian grain alternatives.
Core Exports and Gems Offset Petroleum Decline
Gems and jewellery exports surged 34.6 per cent, while core exports rose 15.3 per cent, partly cushioning the blow from falling petroleum revenues. Growth in core exports was driven by organic and inorganic chemicals (19.4 per cent), electronic items (18.9 per cent), and pharmaceuticals (7.1 per cent). Engineering goods growth moderated but remained robust at 20.7 per cent, according to the Crisil report.
Petroleum Exports Slump on Crude Price Correction
Petroleum exports fell sharply to $4.9 billion in June from $8.4 billion in May, after Brent crude prices corrected following an interim peace agreement. Brent averaged $85.4 a barrel in June, down 20.3 per cent from $107.1 in the prior month. This single-category decline was the chief reason merchandise export growth eased from 18 per cent in May to 15.5 per cent in June.
Import Surge Widens Trade Gap
Merchandise imports climbed 31 per cent to $70.8 billion in June, driven by higher oil and gold purchases alongside a sharp pick-up in core imports. The widening gap between export and import growth has put pressure on India's current account position.
Current Account Deficit Outlook
Crisil Ratings has projected the current account deficit (CAD) to widen to 1.5 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2027, up from 0.6 per cent in fiscal 2026. The ratings agency cited oil as the principal driver of the goods trade deficit and flagged that higher crude and commodity prices will weigh on the CAD. Crisil expects crude oil prices to average $82–87 a barrel in the year ahead, while noting that geopolitical risks in West Asia remain a key uncertainty that could push prices higher. How petroleum exports recover in the coming months will be the single biggest variable in India's external balance sheet.
Point of View
But strip out petroleum and the picture is more nuanced — India's export diversification into chemicals, electronics, and agriculture is real and accelerating. The danger is on the import side: a 31% surge in a single month, led by oil and gold, is not a one-off blip. Crisil's CAD forecast of 1.5% of GDP for FY27 is manageable, but it assumes crude stays in the $82–87 band. West Asia remains a wildcard, and a sustained crude spike could push the deficit toward levels that rattle the rupee and FII sentiment simultaneously. India's export story is strong; its import bill is the vulnerability that policymakers cannot afford to underestimate.
NationPress
17 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did India's merchandise exports grow in June 2025?
India's merchandise exports grew 15.5 per cent year-on-year to $40.4 billion in June 2025, according to a Crisil Ratings report. Growth eased from 18 per cent recorded in May, primarily due to a sharp fall in petroleum exports.
Why did India's export growth slow from May to June?
Petroleum exports nearly halved, dropping to $4.9 billion in June from $8.4 billion in May, after Brent crude prices fell to an average of $85.4 a barrel — down 20.3 per cent — following an interim peace agreement. This single-category decline was the main reason overall export growth moderated.
Which export categories performed best in June 2025?
Other cereals led with 244.2 per cent growth, followed by meat, dairy and poultry at 54.6 per cent and gems and jewellery at 34.6 per cent. Engineering goods grew 20.7 per cent, while chemicals, electronics, and pharmaceuticals also posted strong gains.
What is Crisil's forecast for India's current account deficit?
Crisil Ratings expects India's current account deficit to widen to 1.5 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2027, up from 0.6 per cent in fiscal 2026. The agency cited oil as the primary driver and flagged geopolitical risks in West Asia as a key uncertainty.
How much did India's merchandise imports rise in June 2025?
Merchandise imports surged 31 per cent to $70.8 billion in June 2025, driven by higher oil and gold purchases and a broad pick-up in core imports. The sharp rise widened the goods trade deficit significantly.
