India's merchandise exports seen at $111.9 billion in Q1 FY27: Exim Bank
Synopsis
India Exim Bank projects merchandise exports at $111.9 billion for Q1 FY27, with non-oil exports up 3.5% year-on-year. Trade diversification and recent bilateral deals offer tailwinds, but geopolitical risks and global uncertainty cloud the outlook.
Key Takeaways
India Exim Bank projects total merchandise exports at $111.9 billion in Q1 FY27 (April–June) .
Non-oil exports forecast at $97.8 billion , up 3.5% year-on-year.
Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports estimated at $90.4 billion , up approximately 3% year-on-year.
Growth supported by geographical diversification , policy interventions, and recently concluded trade negotiations .
Downside risks include global economic uncertainty , geopolitical conflicts , and commodity market volatility .
Next export forecast for Q2 FY27 (July–September) due in the first fortnight of August 2026 .
India's total merchandise exports are projected at $111.9 billion during the April–June quarter of FY27, reflecting marginal year-on-year growth, according to the latest quarterly export outlook released on Wednesday, 13 May 2025 by the Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank). The government-backed institution's forecast is based on its in-house Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which tracks domestic and global factors influencing India's export performance.
Key Export Projections for Q1 FY27
Non-oil exports are forecast at $97.8 billion for the first quarter of FY27, representing a growth of 3.5% over the corresponding period last year. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are estimated at $90.4 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 3% during the same period. Together, these sub-categories indicate that the broader export basket is holding steady despite global headwinds.
Factors Supporting Export Growth
India Exim Bank highlighted several tailwinds expected to sustain export momentum in the coming quarter. Growth in non-oil exports is anticipated to be supported by increasing geographical diversification of shipments, timely policy interventions, and targeted emergency credit support measures. Notably, recently concluded trade negotiations with select partner countries are likely to bolster non-oil export segments further. The report also pointed to an expected pickup in global demand and favourable exchange rate movements as additional catalysts for India's export outlook.
Downside Risks and Cautions
Despite the positive projections, India Exim Bank cautioned that significant downside risks remain. Global economic uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and volatility in international commodity markets continue to pose threats to export performance. These factors could dampen demand from key trading partners or disrupt supply chains, potentially pulling actual figures below forecasted levels. This comes amid a broader environment where several major economies are navigating elevated interest rates and subdued consumer demand.
About the ELI Model and Next Forecast
India Exim Bank releases quarterly forecasts for merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports through its proprietary Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The model assesses a range of domestic and global indicators to project quarterly export trends. The bank confirmed that the next export forecast — covering the July–September quarter of FY27 — will be released during the first fortnight of August 2026. Analysts and exporters will closely watch whether the current growth trajectory holds as global trade conditions evolve through the year.
Point of View
But the marginal overall growth masks a more nuanced story — non-oil exports are doing the heavy lifting while commodity-linked categories remain under pressure. The emphasis on geographical diversification is welcome, but India's export base has long been concentrated in a handful of markets and sectors; real diversification takes years, not quarters. The mention of 'recently concluded trade negotiations' is notably vague — without naming the partner countries or detailing the sectoral coverage, it is difficult to assess the actual incremental impact. The geopolitical risk caveat is not merely boilerplate: with Red Sea disruptions and US tariff uncertainty still live, the gap between forecast and realisation could widen quickly.
NationPress
28 Jun 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is India's merchandise export forecast for Q1 FY27?
India's total merchandise exports are projected at $111.9 billion for the April–June quarter of FY27, according to India Exim Bank's quarterly export outlook released on 13 May 2025. This represents marginal year-on-year growth.
What are India's non-oil export projections for Q1 FY27?
Non-oil exports are forecast at $97.8 billion for Q1 FY27, a growth of 3.5% over the same period last year. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are estimated at $90.4 billion, up approximately 3% year-on-year.
What factors are supporting India's export growth in Q1 FY27?
India Exim Bank cited geographical diversification of shipments, timely policy interventions, targeted emergency credit support, recently concluded trade negotiations, an expected pickup in global demand, and favourable exchange rate movements as key growth drivers.
What are the key risks to India's export outlook?
The bank cautioned that global economic uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and volatility in international commodity markets remain significant downside risks that could weigh on actual export performance.
When will India Exim Bank release its next export forecast?
The next quarterly export forecast, covering the July–September quarter of FY27, is scheduled for release during the first fortnight of August 2026.
