India's BRICS exports can hit $200 billion by 2030: ASSOCHAM
Synopsis
India's exports to BRICS nations could more than double to $200 billion by 2030 — from $96 billion in FY26 — if its manufacturing competitiveness and South-South trade ties keep pace. With bilateral BRICS trade already at $417 billion and India's GDP growth holding above 7%, the ASSOCHAM projection is ambitious but grounded in structural shifts reshaping the global trade order.
Key Takeaways
India's exports to BRICS countries could rise to $200 billion by 2030 , up from $96 billion in FY26 , according to ASSOCHAM .
India's share in total BRICS imports could reach 4 per cent by 2030, creating significant export-led growth opportunities.
India's overall bilateral trade with BRICS stood at $417 billion in FY26 .
India recorded average GDP growth of more than 7 per cent during FY21–FY26 ; growth is projected at 6.5–7 per cent this year.
ASSOCHAM Secretary General Saurabh Sanyal cited BRICS as 'an important dynamic participant' in the shifting global economic order.
India's exports to BRICS countries could more than double to $200 billion by 2030, up from $96 billion in FY26, according to an analysis by the ASSOCHAM Global Strategy and Research Centre (AGSRC) released on Thursday, 18 June. The projection is underpinned by stronger South-South cooperation, rising manufacturing competitiveness, and shifting demand-supply dynamics within the expanded bloc.
Key Projections
The AGSRC analysis estimates that India's share in total imports by BRICS nations could climb to 4 per cent by 2030, a significant jump from current levels. This would unlock substantial opportunities for export-led growth, particularly as the BRICS Plus framework draws in new member economies with growing import appetites.
India's overall bilateral trade with BRICS countries already stood at $417 billion in FY26, underscoring the grouping's rising weight in India's external trade basket.
What Is Driving the Outlook
According to the report, the increased competitiveness of India's manufacturing sector and emerging intra-BRICS trade patterns are key structural drivers. Cooperation across trade, investment, the digital economy, green development, supply chains, and financial integration has strengthened considerably in recent years, the analysis noted.
India also recorded average economic growth of more than 7 per cent during FY21–FY26, and GDP expansion is projected to remain in the 6.5–7 per cent range in the current year — a growth profile that supports export capacity expansion.
What ASSOCHAM Said
ASSOCHAM Secretary General Saurabh Sanyal said the BRICS grouping is emerging as a consequential force in the evolving global economic order. 'In the current global economic landscape, the trajectory of multilateral institutions is undergoing a pivotal shift and BRICS is an important dynamic participant in this transformation,' he said.
Sanyal added that India, as a founding member of BRICS, 'has consistently strengthened trade, investment and economic ties with member nations through a balanced and pragmatic approach.'
Why It Matters
The $200 billion target represents a near-doubling of export volumes within four years, which would require sustained policy alignment, logistics improvements, and currency-settlement mechanisms — areas where BRICS has been actively building frameworks. Notably, this projection arrives as global trade routes are being redrawn by geopolitical realignments, making South-South corridors strategically valuable beyond pure economics.
What to Watch
Progress will hinge on whether India can convert manufacturing competitiveness into market share within BRICS economies — particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, and digital services. The next BRICS trade ministerial and India's bilateral trade agreements with newer BRICS Plus members will be closely watched milestones on the path to the 2030 target.
Point of View
But the harder question is whether India's trade infrastructure and currency-settlement frameworks can keep pace with the ambition. BRICS has expanded rapidly, yet intra-bloc trade still flows disproportionately through dollar-denominated channels — a structural friction the grouping has yet to resolve. India's manufacturing competitiveness has improved, but converting that into BRICS market share requires more than capacity: it demands bilateral trade facilitation agreements with newer BRICS Plus members who have their own industrial priorities. The 4 per cent import-share target is achievable only if India moves faster on these non-tariff barriers than it has historically.
NationPress
7 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is ASSOCHAM's projection for India's BRICS exports by 2030?
ASSOCHAM projects India's exports to BRICS countries could more than double to $200 billion by 2030, up from $96 billion in FY26. The estimate is based on rising manufacturing competitiveness and stronger South-South trade cooperation within the expanded BRICS Plus framework.
What is India's current trade volume with BRICS nations?
India's bilateral trade with BRICS countries reached $417 billion in FY26, reflecting the grouping's growing importance in India's overall external trade. Exports stood at $96 billion within that total.
Why does ASSOCHAM believe India's BRICS export share will grow?
ASSOCHAM cites increased competitiveness in India's manufacturing sector, evolving intra-BRICS demand-supply patterns, and deeper cooperation across trade, digital economy, green development, and financial integration as the primary drivers.
How fast is India's economy growing, and why does it matter for exports?
India recorded average GDP growth of more than 7 per cent during FY21–FY26, with growth projected at 6.5–7 per cent in the current year. Sustained high growth expands production capacity and supports a stronger export trajectory.
What is the BRICS Plus framework?
BRICS Plus refers to the expanded grouping that includes original BRICS members — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — along with newer member nations admitted in recent expansion rounds. The enlarged bloc represents a larger combined import market, widening India's potential export base.
